Redstate...
Daily Kos poll
suggests Union movement no match for TEA Party
Posted by Neil Stevens
Tuesday, April 26th
By request, I took a look at this poll by PPP for Daily Kos and SEIU.
Markos Moulitsas himself is hyping the poll as showing an enthusiasm
gap, which of course was one big indicator of the electoral wipeout we
saw in 2010.
I think that he’s right, to a degree. However I read the figures as
having two conclusions: First, the TEA party effect is still there, and
Republicans are slightly more engaged than Democrats at this early
point in the cycle. Second, the Union activism of this year is not
having the same engagement effect with Democrats, that the TEA party,
the ARRA, and the PPACA had with Republicans.
The key numbers in question: 420 Democrats were polled in this sample
of registered voters nationwide, for an MoE of 4.8. 340 Republicans
were polled for an MoE of 5.3. The excitement figures: 52% of Democrats
are very excited, 31% are somewhat excited, and 17% are not at all
excited. For Republicans it goes to 61%, 25%, and 14%. I estimate that
there’s an 81% chance that Republicans have a non-zero advantage among
the very excited, and a 61% chance of a non-zero advantage among those
who are at all excited. So I conclude this polls hows that Republicans
have an engagement advantage over Democrats, per this poll.
Further, union activism around events in Wisconsin and other states has
not evened up the parties. In fact, the Republican advantage among all
excited voters was a deficit last month. Look at the poll taken five
weeks earlier. At that time it was 381 Democrats (MoE 5.0), 371
Republicans (MoE 5.1). For Democrats enthusiasm was at 57/30/13, and
for Republicans it was at 63/21/16. So in the last month we’ve seen
Democrats shift down the enthusiasm spectrum about as much as
Republicans have. In March the chance of a Republican advantage among
the most excited I have at 72% (vs 81% this month), and among all those
excited the Democrats were up 87-84, or a 62% chance for Democrats to
have a true advantage (61% for Republicans this month).
So I’m forced to conclude, based on the movement of the Kos/SEIU poll
that whatever bump in enthusiasm Democrats may have gotten over
Wisconsin is not lasting, and what appeared to some to be a revival of
unionism in America is not shaping up to be a left-wing counterweight
to the right-wing TEA party. Republicans have more intense excitement
about defeating Barack Obama than do Democrats have in re-electing him,
and the trend is in the wrong direction for Democrats.
Read it with links at Redstate
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