Townhall...
Iowa
Straw Poll
By Rich Galen
8/15/2011
It’s
all about expectations.
In
the Iowa Straw Poll in Ames on
Saturday, the expectation was that the number of Iowans who got on a
bus, or
into their cars and drove to Ames to participate would be about the
same number
as four years ago. Some 13,000 Republican Hawkeyes voted in 2007.
Over
16,800 people showed up today
(which was not expected) and 4,823 of them (28.6%) voted for Michelle
Bachmann
good for first place which was not a surprise.
Ron
Paul came in second with 4,671
votes (27.6%) only 152 votes behind. That wasn’t much of a surprise,
either.
The Straw Poll is made for someone like Paul whose support is a foot
wide but a
couple of miles deep. You find your people. You get them to Ames. You
hand them
a $30 ticket so they can get into the hall and vote.
A
reporter had asked me during the day
whether a third place finish would be good enough for Tim Pawlenty to
continue.
I said it would have be a close third. A distant third or worse would
be lights
out for the Pawlenty campaign.
A
distant third is where Pawlenty
ended up receiving votes from only 2,293 Iowans (13.6%). He didn’t meet
expectations and it will be difficult for him to continue. Given the
size of
his food tent, it would be interesting to find out how many BBQ meals
the
Pawlenty campaign served and compare that to how many votes he got.
Rick
Santorum came in fourth with
1,657 votes (9.8%) which was a modest surprise, but no one believes
he’s going
to be on the GOP ticket in November 2012 so it generated just about the
same
amount of buzz as the fourth place finisher in 2007 - Tom Tancredo -
who got a
higher 13.7 percent of the vote four years ago.
Herman
Cain continued his slide back
into political oblivion coming in fifth with 1,456 votes (8.6%).
Because
expectations are everything
,the sixth place finisher (with only 718 votes) was Texas Governor Rick
Perry
was the second-biggest story behind Bachmann. Perry had entered the
race with
an announcement in South Carolina a few hours before the voting was
over in
Iowa. Perry’s name wasn’t on the printed ballot so it became big news
that his
supporters could get that many write-in votes for him.
Mitt
Romney got 557 write-in votes
which only raised some eyebrows because of Perry’s total. There was a
suggestion around the property that if Romney had wanted to, he could
have
turned on the phone call machine, turned out his supporters and come in
first
among the write-ins. But he didn’t, so he didn’t.
Newt
Gingrich got 385 votes and Jon
Huntsman got only 69. Neither result surprised anyone.
This
Straw Poll was a fight among the
GOP candidates who want to claim the mantle of the leader of the
conservative
wing. Romney is not interested in that title, Perry and Bachmann are.
Pawlenty
was. Santorum and Cain didn’t matter before Saturday’s and they matter
less
after it was over.
Bachmann’s
people deserve great
credit. She does not have nearly the organization here in Iowa where
campaigning in the local coffee shop is typically followed up by a
county
coordinator having a team of workers take over when the candidate
leaves to get
names, addresses, phone numbers and emails of everyone in the place.
Bachmann
did it with advertising and a
ton of what used to be called “free” media - press - but is now called
“earned”
media. This result will boost her Q-factor but there are two dark
clouds on the
horizon: Perry and Palin
Rick
Perry is now in the race. He is a
very accomplished campaigner and is fully capable of whacking Bachmann
around.
Note the way he handled Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison in the primary
campaign for
Perry’s re-election as Governor of Texas. He can bring a crowd to its
feet as
easily as Bachmann but has the story-line as a successful Governor of
one of
America’s largest states. That is a better story than being one of 435
Members
of the U.S. House of Representatives.
The
other cloud is named Sarah Palin.
Palin made her promised appearance at the Iowa State Fair here on
Friday and it
was as if Pippa Middleton had wandered in for a fried-butter-on-a-stick.
Bachmann
might be able to hang in with
Perry; but it is doubtful that she would be able to withstand a joint
attack
from Perry and Palin.
So,
where does this leave Mitt Romney?
Until he’s not the front-runner he still is. He didn’t compete here
which was a
good call on his part. I expect his campaign is dusting off the binder
with the
game plan to run against Perry and Bachmann (and maybe Palin) between
now and
the next time we’re all in Des Moines.
Then
we can play the expectation game
throughout the caucuses and primaries.
Read
it at Townhall
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