Dems will win debt debate; Repubs
will
win election
By Dick Morris & Eileen McGann
Published on DickMorris.com on
July
30, 2011
In
the parlance of Washington, the
Democrats are going to get the upper hand in the final round of the
debt
debate. Republicans
will succeed in
making a vast cut in federal spending, unimaginable before the 2010
election
and will block any tax increases.
Democrats will get an extension of the debt
limit until after the
election so as to avoid dragging Obama through this process again.
But
the damage this debate has
inflicted on the Obama Presidency is so deep and profound that it will
have
played a large part in dooming his re-election chances.
The injury to his popularity from the debt
debate is far greater than the addition to his popularity he realized
after
killing bin Laden.
Here’s
what will unfold in Washington:
Step
One: Reid and
McConnell will craft a deal calling
for larger so-called budget cuts (they’ll count the fictitious spending
cuts
achieved by avoiding foreign wars not now contemplated) and they will
extend
the debt limit until after the election.
McConnell will exact some language whereby
Obama has to ask for the
additional borrowing authority but it will require a two-thirds vote to
deny it
to him. There will
be a bi-partisan
committee to craft further savings, but nobody will pay much attention
to its
results, certainly not Obama.
Step
Two: The
Reid-McConnell compromise will pass the
Senate with five or six defections by Democrats up for re-election and
a dozen
or two additions from non-tea party Republicans.
Step
Three: House
Republicans will raise hell and refuse
to pass the Senate bill. Boehner
will
make a show of persuading them and then, finally, confronted by the
“deadline”
artificially ginned up by the president, he will permit it to pass with
strong
Democratic support. A
majority -- or
close to it -- of his own party will vote no.
Outcome: Obama will get credit for
raising the debt
limit. Republican
conservatives will be
able to say they voted no. Boehner
will
keep his credibility because he got a pure debt limit bill passed only
with GOP
votes before he crossed the aisle for final passage.
But
the real outcome will be to have
brought Obama’s job approval down from its bin Laden high of 55% to a
new
Gallup low of 40%. That
is ground he
won’t be able to make up. And,
put
through the rigors of tension and uncertainly, the economy will sink
further
into a double dip recession. A
recession
brought on, in large part, by Obama’s crying wolf over the debt limit
and
creating an environment of financial and economic terror around its
passage.
Republicans
proved they can govern by
passing their one-house debt limit increase.
Their fiscal conservative credentials are
intact. And Obama
looks, once more, like a weak and
easily cowed incompetent to his backers and a big spending and
borrowing
liberal to the rest of us.
Game
to Obama. Set and
Match to the GOP.
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