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‘The Most Volatile
Republican Race in Decades’ Is Actually Well Settled
Redstate...
Posted by Erick Erickson (Diary)
Tuesday, November 29th
“The race for the GOP nomination is well settled at this point. It is
settled in ‘Not Romney’s’ favor. The reason the race is so volatile is
that ‘Not Romney’ is not on the ballot”
I keep hearing from the Washington Chattering Classes, Team Romney, and
the White House that the race is over and Romney’s the nominee. To be
fair, I think Romney will, at present, be the nominee. But as I’m
starting to see stronger signs that he is not going to be the nominee,
the White House, Team Romney, etc. are building more expectations that
he will be the nominee.
But occasionally we hear views from those living in reality. On Wolf
Blitzer’s show yesterday, Gloria Borger, Mary Matalin, and Joe Johns
were in agreement with reality — this is the most volatile Republican
race in decades.
The only thing constant in the race has been Mitt Romney stuck in
second place. Everyone else has bounced up above him, fallen back, and
seen another bounce above him.
For normal people in fly over country that is a troubling sign. For
folks in Washington, many of whom on the Republican side have a
financial interest in MItt Romney being the nominee because of a
potential appointment, consulting contract, etc., it is just the
precursor to settling for Romney.
Notwithstanding the beltway conventional wisdom, however, I am
beginning to see the beginning of the end of Romney as the viable
nominee and, more importantly, for people wondering why the Republican
primary seems so volatile this year the answer is staring at everyone
in the Real Clear Politics polling average.
The race is so volatile because seventy-five percent of the Republican
base does not want Mitt Romney as the nominee.
Consider that most people did not start paying attention to the race
until the end of summer, around Labor Day. Now look at the RCP polling
average since that point.
Romney has been in the lead three times: before Perry’s rise, between
the Perry fall and Cain rise, and between the Cain fall and Gingrich
rise. That’s it. Each time, the non-Romney candidate gets ahead of him.
But what’s more, consider how Romney has never, since November 3, 2010,
gotten more than 25.5% of the polling average. And he only recently
broke above 25.0% of the polling average only to fall back down to
21.3% within weeks.
The race is so volatile because the race is well settled as we get 38
days from Iowa. The race is settled against Mitt Romney. The question,
however, is who the alternative is going to be. And if one does not
hold up, it will fall to Mitt Romney.
This may cheer Romney’s supporters, and it is likely, but I fear there
will be sever damage to the GOP down ballot with a Romney nomination.
If voters are not excited about their guy — and 75% of them are not
excited by Mitt Romney — that lack of excitement will trickle down
ballot limiting any coat tails.
The Washington GOP establishment may have fallen for Mitt Romney, but
they are both foolish and naive to think they can beat something with
nothing. Mitt Romney is, in fact, a great big nothing — malleable into
any shape you want, a void into which you can place any policy
position. That’s a problem nationally, but it is also a problem down
ballot with coat tails.
The race for the GOP nomination is well settled at this point. It is
settled in ‘Not Romney’s’ favor. The reason the race is so volatile is
that “Not Romney” is not on the ballot making a Romney nomination not
just possible, but probable.
Read this and other columns at Redstate
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