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Human Events...
Romney in Front as
Feisty Bachmann Gains on Pawlenty
by Michael Barone
06/16/2011
Barack Obama did not watch the Republican presidential candidates’
debate in Manchester, N.H., on Monday night, we are told. He was busy
addressing a campaign fundraising event in Miami.
If Obama had Tivoed the debate, he would have seen a full crowd in the
glitzy cavernous hall in St. Anselm’s College. Something of a contrast
to the empty seats at the top level of the gleaming Adrienne Arsht
Center in Miami, even though tickets ran as low as $44.
The standard rule in politics is to hire a hall that’s not big enough
for the crowd you expect. This was no problem for the Obama campaign in
2008, when it filled venues as large as Invesco Field in Denver and
Grant Park in Chicago.
The comparative crowd sizes Monday night suggest that, as in the 2010
elections, the balance of enthusiasm has shifted to the other side.
There were two clear winners in the Republican debate. I have argued
that there is no frontrunner for the Republican nomination, but Mitt
Romney certainly looked like one. His clear vulnerability is his
Massachusetts health care program, with its Obamacare-like mandate to
buy health insurance.
But no one called him on it. Tim Pawlenty, who had criticized
“Obamneycare” on “Fox News Sunday,” seemed to take that back at St.
Anselm’s. Romney responded by saying that if Obama had asked his
advice, he would have said that Obamacare wouldn’t work.
In doing so, he showed the sense of command that is one quality
Americans usually seek in a president. And he continually brandished
his businessman’s credentials by attacking Obama’s economic policies as
disastrous.
The other clear winner was Michele Bachmann, who took the occasion to
announce her candidacy and who was clearly well prepared for likely
questions.
She batted back CNN moderator John King’s suggestion that she was
irresponsible in opposing an increase in the federal debt limit by
quoting another statement opposing it -- by then-Sen. Barack Obama. She
declined King’s invitation to pick a fight with those who favor
abortion in cases of rape and incest. She cited her opposition to the
$700 billion TARP legislation in 2008 by saying that principle comes
before party.
And she made sure to mention that she had worked as a tax attorney,
raised five biological children and provided a home for 23 foster
children.
Pawlenty and Bachmann, both from Minnesota and occasional antagonists
in politics there, seem headed for a confrontation in the Republican
straw poll to be held in Ames, Iowa, on Aug. 13. That’s a contest that
puts a premium on enthusiasm -- you have to get people to drive up to
four hours on a Saturday morning.
Both have an obvious appeal to religious conservatives who have been
the dominant force in Iowa Republican contests. Pawlenty has had a head
start in organizing, and as a two-term governor has seemed to have a
stronger claim to be a serious candidate. But the two came out of the
debate seeming more evenly matched than he surely hoped.
Romney is not competing in Iowa as he did in 2008, when he won the
straw poll but then saw second-place finisher Mike Huckabee beat him in
the January precinct caucuses. Newt Gingrich is evidently not competing
in the straw poll, either.
All of which makes it likely that there will be a real traffic jam in
New Hampshire. Gingrich, Herman Cain and Rick Santorum have to do well
there to remain viable. Jon Huntsman, former governor of Utah and
Obama’s ambassador to China, says he will announce next week and will
concentrate on New Hampshire and Florida.
And the field may expand further. Rick Perry, governor of Texas, the
state that has been America’s leading job-producer over the last
decade, showed no interest in running until last month. But now he’s
giving speeches in California and New York, and may be ready to saddle
up. And Rudy Giuliani, whose 2008 campaign fizzled out, is eyeing New
Hampshire, as well.
Then there is House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan, whose name was
mentioned favorably 10 times in the debate. Only two things that seem
certain about the Republican race. Ron Paul will soldier on, bashing
the Federal Reserve, to the end. And that the energy and enthusiasm on
display Monday night will produce some twists and turns no one will
predict.
Read it at Human Events
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