Who’s
Left on the Right
By Dick Morris
Published on TheHill.com on May 24, 2011
On arriving at the Democratic Convention of 1960, reporters asked Adlai
Stevenson who would emerge as the nominee. “The last survivor,” he
answered. Perhaps the 2012 Republican nomination will be determined by
the same criterion.
With the departures of John Thune, Mike Pence, Mike Huckabee, Haley
Barbour, Donald Trump and, now, Mitch Daniels, we have constantly to
revise our scenarios of the likely outcome.
As always, the geographic mix of primaries is overshadowed by the
ideological aspects of the contest. On the center court, Mitt Romney
stands to win the moderate-Republican quarterfinal now that Trump,
Daniels and Thune have dropped out. Tim Pawlenty and Jon Huntsman are
his only rivals. Huntsman, hobbled by his service in the Obama
administration, is unlikely to make much progress while Romney is
running, but Pawlenty might be more viable. The former Minnesota
governor enjoys important advantages in next-door Iowa. If he can
finish above Romney there, he could be a viable opponent down the
track. To knock Pawlenty out of the race, Romney needs to beat him in
Iowa.
Meanwhile, in the conservative quarterfinal, Michele Bachmann is the
odds-on favorite now that Huckabee has gotten out of the way. An Iowa
native, she seems ideally poised to win the first caucus. Her main
rivals will be Newt Gingrich and Herman Cain. Newt has to finish above
Bachmann. Will enough conservative women flock to Michele to overcome
Gingrich’s advantage among the right-wing faithful? A lot depends on
whether she can contain the grassfire of enthusiasm spreading for the
Tea Party favorite, Cain. Now that enough insiders have dropped out,
there might be running room for the charismatic former CEO of
Godfather’s Pizza. But Bachmann’s role as the leader of the Tea Party
Caucus in the House gives her a big advantage. From that perch, she can
protest Boehner’s deals with Obama and demand a militancy as popular on
the hustings as it is anathema in the House Speaker’s Office.
The most likely outcome in Iowa would be: Bachmann, Romney, Gingrich,
Pawlenty, Cain, Huntsman.
Then attention will turn, of course, to New Hampshire, where Romney has
a big lead whose solidity is questionable. Having failed to win there
in 2008 facing McCain, can he prevail now that he has been out of
office as Massachusetts governor for six years? Romney needs to win or
he will be badly hurt. And, following a likely Bachmann win in Iowa,
Gingrich must finish at least second to remain in contention.
The most likely result is that Bachmann and Romney head into South
Carolina with major momentum. There, next door to Georgia, Newt will
make his last stand. Failing an upset, the Mitt and Michele show will
take to the road.
A battle of Romney vs. Bachmann would be less a struggle between the
center and the right of the Republican Party than of its top against
its bottom. The party establishment, its donors, its business allies
and its elected officials would rally to Romney while the Tea Party and
evangelical voters will back Bachmann. (In the Democratic Party, it’s
always wise to bet on the bottom, but in the Republican Party, the top
usually prevails.)
(If Chris Christie enters the race, all bets are off. He could win
Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and everyplace else. But this
particular dragon seems too reluctant to run.)
Working for Romney is a sense of legitimacy. The Republican Party is
essentially monarchic, always looking for a duly anointed heir. With
Bush leaving office intestate, Romney’s good run in 2008 and his
loyalty to the GOP since create a sense that it is his turn. On the
other hand, his RomneyCare legislation in Massachusetts will offer the
Tea Party ranks of Michele Bachmann a huge target in primary after
primary. Has the Republican Party become enough like the Democratic --
dominated by an energized grass roots -- that an upset is possible?
We’ll see.
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