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Obama 2012 Win a Sure
Thing?
By Bernard Goldberg
May 27, 2011
For all of my conservative friends who think that Barack Obama will
never be re-elected if the economy is still in the doldrums next year,
I have three words for you: Franklin Delano Roosevelt.
FDR was re-elected in 1936 and the economy was in a very bad way --
far, far worse than it is today or likely to be in November 2012.
That’s the good news for President Obama. The bad news is that FDR is
the only president in the last 75 years to be re-elected when the
economy was in bad shape and unemployment was over 8 percent. And if
the economy doesn’t get a lot better soon, if unemployment doesn’t fall
significantly by November 2012, Barack Obama may very well be a
one-and-out president who made it on charm the first time around but
now has a crummy record hanging around his neck.
But for Republicans, this may be nothing more than wishful thinking
masquerading as political analysis. After all, sitting presidents
usually win re-election. Since 1936, 11 incumbent presidents have run
for a second term and only three were defeated – Gerald Ford, Jimmy
Carter and George H.W. Bush.
And, like FDR, Barack Obama has something else going for him – an
intangible that may compensate for bad economic news: likeability -- an
essential characteristic for anyone hoping to do well in politics.
Except for his enemies – and that’s not too strong a word if you’ve
ever listened to his most passionate detractors -- Americans generally
like Barack Obama, even when they disagree with him on matters of
policy.
They like his smile, they like the way he talks, they like the way he
dresses and carries himself, and yes, they like the fact that he is the
first black man elected president of the United States of America. In
some ways, it is a source of national pride.
Consider these four things that set President Obama apart from his
likely Republican challengers: he’s young, he’s cool, he’s black and
he’s liberal. Those traits, as much as anything else, I believe, got
him elected the first time around. The Obama magic could not have
centered on his politics. He was a first term senator with no
discernible record. A respected magazine – National Journal – said he
was the most liberal member of the Senate. In a center-right country,
that’s not a plus.
Still he won. And in early polls – despite the fact that Americans are
not enamored by his politics – President Obama beats potential
Republican nominees just about every time. So what’s going on?
Republicans come off like stiffs, that’s what’s going on. Whatever they
are, they are not cool. And when they (rightly) focus on deficit
reduction and spending cuts – as conservative scholar Shelby Steele
recently noted in a Wall Street Journal op-ed -- “they can be made to
look like a gaggle of scolding accountants.”
And who wants to vote for a scolding accountant?
In other words, Barack Obama is tomorrow; all those white, male
Republicans come off as yesterday. We’ve seen people who look like them
before. The juxtaposition beat McCain in 2008. Obama and his team are
betting it will happen again in 2012.
“The point is that anyone who runs against Mr. Obama will be seen
through the filter of this racial impressionism, in which white skin is
redundant and dark skin is fresh and exceptional,” says Steele. “This
is the new cultural charisma that the president has introduced into
American politics.”
Charisma goes a long way in politics, especially when it’s up against
scolding accountants. So what to do if you’re a Republican with dreams
of becoming president? Turn President Obama into the candidate of
yesterday. Tell the American people that Mr. Obama represents
everything tired and old in American politics.
Tell them that being the first black American president is wonderful
and historic, but it’s not enough, not anymore – not after he shoved
ObamaCare down the throats of the American people, not after he spent
nearly a trillion dollars on a stimulus package with questionable
results, not after his worldwide tour apologizing for America’s
supposed sins, and not after his failure to deliver on his promise to
usher in a new tone and new politics in Washington.
Tell them the Republicans are the candidate with new ideas while Mr.
Obama hasn’t had a new idea, maybe ever. And tell them, as Shelby
Steele smartly points out, that “Barack Obama believes in government;
we believe in you.”
President Obama’s base – the so-called mainstream media – will do
everything it can to get him re-elected. Last time around they weren’t
content being eye-witnesses and chroniclers of history. Last time
around they were intent on helping shape history. After all, this
wasn’t just one more Mondale or Dukakis or Gore or Kerry running for
president. So they have a lot invested in this president.
The good news for Republicans is that the American people understand
all this. Having the “lamestreams’ on your side helps. But if the
Republicans play their cards right, it won’t help enough.
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