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Redstate...
Where This Is Headed
Posted by Michael Hammond
Thursday, March 24th
So … where is this whole budget process headed?
Let’s review the bidding:
Many conservative groups have pushed for -– at the very least -–
Republican opposition to any short-or long-term spending bill that does
not defund ObamaCare.
The Republican leadership balks because they do not want to get the
blame for shutting down the government -– which would be shut down for
the sole reason that Barack Obama refuses to sign a bill to keep it
open, if the price for him is defunding the ObamaCare program which
independent voters hate.
The Republican leadership also fears ads about cute children who
starved to death because of a government shutdown –- but, of course,
that can be averted by legislation to keep attractive programs open in
lieu of a funding or debt limit bill.
Finally, the Republican leadership fears the damage to the economy –-
again, a slowdown of the recovery during Barack Obama’s watch for the
sole reason that Obama would rather crash the economy than defund
ObamaCare. (From a Republican perspective, that’s called having all 52
cards in your hand.)
Instead, says the Republican leadership, this is only the first of a
series of battles.
First, there will be the debt limit.
And why will Republicans be stronger in the battle over the debt limit
than they were in the battle over the continuing resolution?
I can assure them that there will be no fewer liberal
economists-for-hire crawling out of the woodwork to predict economic
apocalypse if the debt limit is not raised.
So what will Republicans seek in exchange for the debt limit?
$61 billion (minus $10 billion) in spending cuts? Which will be
compromised to $30 billion in cuts, coming out of Obama-approved
“corporate welfare,” defense, and user fees that claim not to be taxes,
but are. (Incidentally, the defense money will be added back on a
supplemental appropriations this summer, after Saudi Arabia and Qatar
break out in riots.)
A balanced budget constitutional amendment? And what if Obama offers
you the following: “Expenditures of the Government of the United States
shall not exceed Receipts in any fiscal year.”? This means a
constitutionally mandated Value Added Tax, plus judicial oversight of
the budget. But how are you going to explain, in a 30-second sound
bite, that this is different from the “18% of GDP, subject to
sequestration, with supermajority and emergency escape valves”
amendment you were looking for?
A “grand bargain”? Frankly, Republicans don’t do “grand bargains” well.
Remember TEFRA, where Reagan partially repealed Roth-Kemp, then sat
around waiting for the commensurate spending cuts that never came? Or
the “read-my-lips” tax increase that cost George H. W. Bush his
presidency and place in history -– also only to wait for spending cuts
that never came?
Do I realize that, in order to begin to balance the budget, you’re
going to have to get beyond the tiny sliver consisting of domestic
discretionary spending? Of course I do.
But Paul Ryan’s budget -– which he is being lured to propagate by the
mainstream media -– is not going to be worth the paper it’s printed on
-– particularly with a crop of Republicans who do not have enough
courage to threaten to shut down the government to defund ObamaCare.
Obama -– who is currently threatened with the loss of Florida and his
presidency by his own Medicare cuts -– will blast the GOP for its
meaningless “senior cut” proposals. And, at that point, feckless
Republicans will believe that the only political way out is to actually
consummate the “grand bargain” -– which will happen only with massive
tax increases which dwarf tiny entitlement cuts.
But what about the fiscal year 2012 budget? With the exception of the
D.C., Legislative Branch, and Military Construction appropriations, any
bill that involves any controversy will stall in the Senate. On
September 30, we will be in the same position we are now -– with the
entire government (or most of it) subject to a “continuing resolution.”
And, if McConnell and Boehner are not willing to risk shutting down the
government now, why would they be more inclined to do so in September
-– almost a year away from the elections which swept the GOP into power?
Finally, there is the Krautheimer scenario. Everything will be played
out in the 2012 elections.
Let’s hope not.
If Barack Obama walks away from the budget and debt limit fights as the
great bipartisan messiah who cut taxes AND slashed $30 billion from the
budget, why would swing voters vote for the feckless Republicans who
allowed him to get away with that?
Read it at Redstate
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