The Big Winner: Romney
By Dick Morris & Eileen McGann
Published on DickMorris.com on May 16, 2011
Now that two of the top three candidates for the Republican nomination
have pulled out of the race, the big winner is the one candidate left
standing: Mitt Romney.
The polling before Huckabee and Trump pulled out was -- in my survey --
Romney-22, Huckabee-20, Trump-15, Gingrich-11, Palin-9, Bachmann-6,
Pawlenty-3, and Daniels-2.
Now, Romney will inherit a large proportion of the votes left on the
table by Huckabee’s and Trump’s withdrawal. My polling suggests
that, based on the expressed second choices of the Huckabee and Trump
voters, Romney will get 30% of Huckabee’s voters and 40% of
Trump’s. These additions should lift him over 30% of the vote and
give him a 2:1 lead over the nearest contender (Gingrich).
Romney was having a terrible week. His speech on health care was
terrible. With Massachusetts up in arms over Romney-care and
Republicans dead set against the individual and employer mandate, his
failure to repudiate his program would have cost him dearly. But
now he is sitting on top of the world.
Republicans are a legitimist group. Having run before and paid
his dues since, Romney is broadly attractive. He is seen as most
likely to handle the economy successfully and most likely to defeat
Obama. He new has the decided edge.
Gingrich, Bachmann, Daniels, and Pawlenty are the obvious other
beneficiaries of the shifting cast of characters.
For Newt, the key is the debates that begin on June 7. (Tune into on to
dickmorris.com for my play-by-play commentary -- in writing -- on the
debate as it unfolds and for my video commentary on it as soon as it is
over). If Newt can establish that his intellectual and rhetorical
prowess can overcome his personal negatives, he could be on his way to
a strong run at the nomination. But perhaps they won’t be
enough. We’ll see.
For Bachmann, the key is to announce right away, first to keep Palin
out of the race (Huckabee’s withdrawal will encourage her to run) and
to lay claim to the evangelicals and Tea Party folks who would have
backed Mike. Recent polling shows that the evangelicals and the
Tea Party supporters are substantially the same people. They
would be the base of a Bachmann candidacy and Michele needs to go out
and claim them.
For Daniels, the withdrawal of Trump opens the way for him to become
the main establishment business community rival to Romney. And
Huckabee’s withdrawal opens the door for conservatives to support him
as well. He needs also to announce soon to get into the fray.
For Pawlenty, the withdrawals may open the way into the race.
With candidates as formidable as Trump and Huckabee sitting on their
vote shares, there was little the former Minnesota Governor could do to
get a word in edgewise. Now the way is open for him to get into
the fray.
But the big, big winner is Romney. It is now a rebuttable
presumption that Romney will likely be the nominee. And that’s
huge.
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