Redstate...
Conservatives Stand
to Lose Big in 2012
Posted by Erick Erickson
Tuesday, May 24th
Editor's Note: Regarding who we need to win in Ohio, Erickson says:
"Two words: Josh Mandel"
After the historic gains made by conservatives — not just Republicans —
in 2010, the conservative movement stands to slide back and lose in
2012.
I’m not talking about the race to the White House. I’m talking about
the United States Senate. At a time when Senate Republicans refuse to
lead and Mitch McConnell is doing his best to marginalize the solid
conservatives, the right is distracted by the White House. The same GOP
that tried to stick the right with Trey Greyson, Charlie Crist, Mike
Castle, and more is going to try again. If conservatives are not
vigilant, they’re going to be stuck with the likes of Heather Wilson,
etc.
Let’s review the lay of the land and the states I’m interested in.
Arizona
I’m going with Jeff Flake here. He’s not a perfect candidate, but I
believe he is the best candidate and the most likely candidate to be a
thorn in the GOP leadership’s side in the Senate. That is no small
matter. We need to keep up internal pressure on the GOP and Flake can
do that.
Florida
Adam Hasner is the guy conservatives should rally to. LeCrist is the
D.C. favorite, but he is tied too deeply to Charlie Crist. Haridopolous
does not impress me and I expect the opposition to make great hay out
of some of his more dubious issues, including that book.
Indiana
I’m not prepared to endorse here yet, but it is clear Dick Lugar needs
to go, and more and more it looks like Richard Mourdock is the guy to
do it. Mourdock would be a clear improvement over Dick Lugar.
Conservatives have a real shot to toss Lugar and keep Indiana.
MIssissippi
I’d love to take out Roger Wicker. It’d be good for the conservative
movement. The guy is terrible. But I don’t see any conservative
stepping up right now in state where Wicker is eminently beatable in a
primary according to some recent polling from PPP that shows Wicker is
only one point ahead from a generic conservative alternative.
Missouri
Right now I’m looking at Sarah Steelman, but I’m undecided here.
McCaskill is going to be hard to beat with Obama on the ballot in 2012.
Montana
The present Republican in the race, Denny Rehberg, is not the best the
GOP can do. I don’t know who can step up in Montana, but Rehberg should
be considered the bottom of the barrel, not the best available
candidate to run.
Nebraska
Conservatives going with Jon Bruning are making a terrible mistake. I
realize the Bible is a story of repentance and forgiveness, but you
don’t put the new converts in the Senate where they have six years to
go Chuck Hagel on us. Don Stenberg is my guy for this race.
“I would love to persuade you that trickle down economics was a farce
or that Ronald Reagan was incapable of understanding complex policy
arguments.”
“I believe in gun control.”
“I think a woman should have a right to choose.”
Those are just some of Jon Bruning’s greatest hits.
Yes, he has grown up. Yes, he has changed. Yes, he is center-right now.
But I want to put a guy in the Senate who has a long term conservative
track record. Conservatives have been burned once before by Nebraska
with Chuck Hagel.
I’m going with Don Stenberg.
New Mexico
The number one goal of conservatives in 2012, other than defeating
Barack Obama, has got to be defeating Heather Wilson in New Mexico.
She’d be Mike Castle terrible in the United States Senate. Luckily, we
have a strong, viable challenger to her in the primary named John
Sanchez.
We should rally early for Sanchez to stop Wilson.
Ohio
Two words: Josh Mandel
Tennessee
Surely conservatives can find somebody decent to beat the heck out of
Bob Corker in a primary in Tennessee. Corker is terrible. He pushes the
Senate GOP left and toward capitulation. He is contemptuous of
conservatives. He’s bad news.
Conservatives need to rally in Tennessee and take out Bob Corker. If
keeping Heather Wilson out of the Senate is priority number one, number
two is ridding the Senate of Bob Corker.
Texas
Too soon to decide yet between Williams and Cruz. But at all costs we
need to stop Leppert. I think even DewCrist would be better than
Leppert.
Wisconsin
No idea on this one, but Tommy Thompson needs to be beaten. We don’t
need to fill John Ensign’s void with a guy like Thompson. That’s even
above and beyond his Obamacare support, etc. Beloved or not in
Wisconsin, conservatives can do much, much better.
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