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Ohio
Issue 2: Let’s not over-react or
fall for media templates
Posted by Kevin Holtsberry
Tuesday, November 8th
Issue
2 in Ohio has failed. Unions
poured a gazillion dollars into Ohio and won.
Despite having a sense of this outcome for
some time it still
stings. Believe it
or not, a great many
felt that these reforms were important steps in bring fiscal and
structural
sanity to government. The
voters clearly
did not get that message.
The
media is going to try and play
this as horse race politics. Governor John Kasich lost and the
Democrats
won. And obviously,
in some important
sense – even if only in the fact the story and perspective being
conventional
wisdom – this is true. Kasich and Republicans passed this legislation
and it
has been rejected. Fair
enough.
But
I personally believe there is a
simpler explanation. Voters
like their
local cops, firefighters, nurses and teachers.
In many ways, they idealize these type of
positions even if they don’t
like the state of education or public safety, etc.
Thus opponents of reform had a very easy and
emotionally effective message: Senate Bill 5 is an attack on the
“everyday
heroes” who protect our communities.
It
doesn’t really matter if this was true or not.
In a 30 second ad it is easy to say and makes
an emotional connection.
This is a huge advantage in a statewide ballot issue.
Combine
this with the huge financial
advantage the opponents had (unions could take dues from union members
regardless of their political beliefs and spend it on this election)
and you
have an uphill battle for supporters (and of course there is a minority
of
voters – public sector and labor unions – who are simply voting their
self-interest). All
they had to do was
blanket the state with pictures of police and firefighters opposed to
the issue
and the lasting impression is that the bill is an attack on the people
we value
the most in our communities.
We
can debate the wisdom of keeping
fire and saftey forces in the bill (and the larger strategy &
process)
later. But what I want to note tonight is that this is not an
ideological
victory in my mind. I
don’t believe
voters saw this as a smaller or larger government debate. Nor was it
about
lowering or raising taxes. It was about not attacking public safety. It
was
about a simple but effective message with overwhelming financial
superiority.
The nature of modern elections means this was not an upset but par for
the
course given the nature of popular ballot issues.
Is
Kasich unpopular? Sure, the economy
sucks and doesn’t look good any time soon. People tend to blame people
at the
top. Kasich didn’t
have any real
political capital left to win on this issue. But that doesn’t mean
Kasich is suddenly
a defeated governor. He
is going to
ultimately be judged on the success of his policies in the medium to
long term.
He passed a budget that puts Ohio on a path to success. He is
fundamentally
redefining economic development in this state and he is selling Ohio
like mad.
If the Ohio economy gets better and the policies he has implemented
begin to
bear fruit he will be just fine.
And
this is not the sign of GOP
over-reach either. If
this was such an
ideological turning of the tide that how to explain the passage of
Issue 3 – a
clear repudiation of health care mandates?
If Ohio voters suddenly turned to the left
that win seems to make little
sense. I think it is much easier to see this as another reflection of
message
and popular sentiment. People saw health care mandates as threat to
their care
and likely to raise costs. They
rejected
the idea. Exactly how is this going to help Democrats (or the president
for
example) in Ohio?
If
Democrats think the ground has
shifted significantly I think they are getting carried away. Unions felt their backs
were up against the
wall and they leveraged their financial advantage to great effect. They
rallied
the troops and used their message, however deceptive, to great effect.
This is
a big win. I get
that.
But
off-year ballot issues of this
nature do not mean fundamental change.
As I said on twitter, “If you have an
emotionally effective message, and
can spend five times as much, you have a good chance of winning ballot
issues.”
This is not sea change in political philosophy or a rejection of the
party in
power (neither party are particularly popular when it comes right down
to it).
So
ignore the union gloating and the
media stories about how independents reject extremism and over-reach. Instead, conservatives
need to find ways to
better communicate their ideas and continue to build the institutions
and
organizations that can move their ideas and policies forward. Fiscal reality is not
going to change. The
nature of what government can and can’t accomplish given its nature and
this
fiscal reality isn’t going to magically change because of this vote.
Conservatives
took one on the chin,
yes, but the larger war is far from clear.
There are even bigger battles that lie ahead.
Let’s get ready.
Read
this and other columns at
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