Townhall...
The
Third Party Possibility
By Salena Zito
November 14, 2011
The
only time in modern history that a
third-party candidate got more votes than a major-party candidate was
in 1912.
Nearly
100 years later, Republican
John McCain, who lost his own White House bid, suggests voters are
angry enough
with Washington to do that again.
Each
generation arrogantly assumes the
events of its lifetime are “firsts.” Yet 2012’s election will have
nothing over
1912’s electoral drama.
The
one thing both elections have in
common is record dissatisfaction with both parties.
Four
main candidates ran in 1912: a
Republican president (William Howard Taft), a former Republican
president
turned “progressive” (Teddy Roosevelt), a Democrat (Woodrow Wilson)
nominated
only after 46 ballots and the eventual support of populist William
Jennings
Bryan, and a Socialist (Eugene Debs).
Third-party
candidates generally fill
the gap when the two major parties don’t respond to a given set of
needs, said
Larry Lindsey, a former Federal Reserve governor.
“I
think McCain is right – that this
is a natural time for third parties to channel public anger at Wall
Street and
Washington,” Lindsey added.
Ross
Perot in 1992 and Ralph Nader in
2000 are third-party candidates who came nowhere close to winning but
are
credited with costing other candidates the White House.
Yet
the 2000 race was so controversial
because of Florida, not Nader, according to presidential historian
Eldon
Eisenach: “If (Al) Gore had simply won his own state, he would have won
(the
election).”
In
1992, however, Perot not only
received 19% of the vote but forced both candidates to address the
national
debt, Eisenach said.
While
it is provocative to imagine
voters throwing both parties out of Washington, Republicans and
Democrats
clearly have stacked the deck against third-party candidates. Add to
that their
allies in the press, said Christopher Kelley, an expert in U.S.
elections.
Since
we do not have a national
ballot, a candidate must get on each state’s ballot, which means
obtaining
anywhere from a couple thousand to hundreds of thousands of signatures.
And a
candidate usually must receive a certain percentage of the vote – 15%
in many
states – or risk being removed from future ballots and forced to gather
signatures all over again.
“Furthermore,
winner-take-all
elections – versus proportional representation – offer no incentives to
candidates who cannot come in first,” said Kelley.
The
press refuses to cover most
third-party candidates or, if it does, covers them in a highly negative
way –
as cranks or troublemakers – which does nothing for their public
standing. It
does so even though “the American public fully supports the option for
a
third-party choice,” said Kelley.
Howard
Dean, a former Democratic
presidential candidate and Vermont governor, likes the competitiveness
and
ideas that come from third parties. “But they should start on local
levels,
where they can really effect change in a very real way,” he said.
Dean
readily admits the atmosphere is
ripe now for political revolt: “America views Washington as being
incredibly
out of touch – especially the Middle Class.”
His
advice for Barack Obama: Stay out
of Washington and keep talking about jobs.
Democrat
and retired Navy admiral Joe
Sestak, a former eastern Pennsylvania congressman who shocked the
Washington
establishment by upsetting U.S. Senator Arlen Specter in 2010, says he
initially considered running as an independent.
After
months of consideration (and the
Obama White House’s controversial request that he forego a primary
challenge),
Sestak decided to ran as a Democrat. He beat Specter but lost narrowly
in the
general election to Republican Pat Toomey.
Sestak
thinks Obama initially had that
populist Jacksonian spirit that attracts independents, Republicans and
Democrats who will go for a third-party candidate.
“But
he did not retain the breadth of
the people’s support, because there was too much focus on Washington
politics
instead of using the heft of people behind him as the best influencer
of needed
policy changes,” he said.
One
strategist for Democrats, who
spends most of his time with Main Street voters beyond Washington’s
beltway,
thinks “2012 is a year for an outsider/independent. But it would have
to be one
who can self-finance while simultaneously having the appeal to attract
motivated individuals that will get him or her on the ballot in all the
key
states.”
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