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The Real
Poll Numbers
By Dick
Morris
August 6,
2012
The media
is trying to create a sense of momentum and of inevitability about the
Obama
candidacy. One benighted Newsweek reporter even speculated about a
possible Democratic
landslide.
On Friday,
I saw the real numbers. These state-by-state polls, taken by an
organization I
trust (after forty years of polling) show the real story. The tally is
based on
more than 600 likely voter interviews in each swing state within the
past eight
days.
The trend
line is distinctly pro-Romney. Of the thirteen states studied, he
improved or
Obama slipped in nine states while the reverse happened in only four.
To read
the media, one would think that Romney had a terrible month. In fact,
the exact
reverse is true.
Romney is
currently leading in every state McCain carried plus: Indiana, New
Hampshire,
Wisconsin, Nevada, North Carolina, and Colorado. If he carries these
states,
he’ll have 228 electoral votes of the 270 he needs to win.
To win the
election, Romney would then have to carry Florida where he trails by
two
points, and either Virginia (behind by two) or Ohio where he’s down by
only
one.
If he
carries all three of these states and also wins all the others where
Obama is
now at 50% or less – Iowa, New Mexico, Michigan, Minnesota,
Pennsylvania, and
New Jersey — he will get 351 electoral votes, a landslide about equal
to
Obama’s 363 vote tally in 2008.
The strong
probability is that Romney does, in fact, carry Florida, Ohio, and
Virginia and
a share of the other states where Obama is below 50% of the vote.
So don’t
believe the garbage being put out by the media. The attempt to portray
Romney
as not catching on and as dropping in the polls is ludicrous. It is, at
best,
the product of incompetent polling and, at worst, the result of
deliberate
media bias. But Romney is winning and expanding his lead each week.
That’s the
real story.
Read this
and other articles at Dick Morris
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