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Townhall...
Numbers Suggest
Santorum Could Be Romney’s Worst Nightmare
by Scott Rasmussen
Feb 17, 2012
In a campaign defined by Republican reluctance to embrace Mitt Romney,
Rick Santorum has emerged as the latest not-Romney candidate to surge
ahead. While it’s impossible to predict what will happen in this
volatile election season, the data suggests that Santorum might be more
of a challenge for Romney than earlier flavors of the month.
The latest Rasmussen Reports poll of the GOP race shows that Rick
Santorum leads Mitt Romney by 12 points, 39 percent to 27 percent. Newt
Gingrich and Ron Paul are far behind. In and of itself, that’s nothing
new. The man from Massachusetts has at times trailed Michele Bachmann,
Donald Trump, Chris Christie, Rick Perry, Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich
in the polls.
What is new are the numbers from a head-to-head matchup with no other
candidates in the race. Santorum leads Romney 55 percent to 34 percent.
None of the earlier Romney alternatives could manage better than a
toss-up in such a contest.
Those numbers show that Santorum picks up 16 points when other
candidates drop out. Romney adds just 7 to his column. Santorum makes
huge gains among conservative voters when others drop out of the race.
Among non-conservatives, Santorum and Romney gain roughly equal
amounts. For the first time, the numbers show that if one of Romney’s
challengers drops out, the other challenger will overwhelmingly
benefit. Gingrich supporters, by a three-to-one margin, would vote for
Santorum over Romney if that was the final choice.
Both Romney and Santorum are well-liked by Republican Primary voters,
but Santorum has a slight advantage on this pointm as well.
Seventy-five percent offer a favorable opinion of Santorum, while 66
percent say the same of Romney.
There is a huge passion gap favoring Santorum, though. Forty percent of
Republican primary voters have a very favorable opinion of Santorum.
Just 18 percent are that enthusiastic about Romney.
The one thing keeping Romney afloat is that he is still perceived as
the strongest general election candidate. For some Republicans, that’s
enough. But to survive the Santorum challenge, Romney needs to give
primary voters something more, something positive. GOP voters want a
reason to vote for him beyond the fact that he has the most money and
the best organization.
Team Romney needs to acknowledge that Republican voters are not only
strongly opposed to President Obama’s agenda but that they don’t think
much of Washington Republicans, either. They want a president who would
shake up the good old boys network in Washington rather than join it.
To date, Romney’s attitude signals that he’d be more comfortable
leading the club than challenging it.
Santorum has a very different challenge. First, he must survive the
onslaught of ads coming from the Romney campaign. Then, he must
convince Republican voters that he can win the general election in
November. Electability is still the most important factor for
Republican voters. If Santorum can neutralize the electability
argument, he could become Romney’s worst nightmare.
The next primary competitions are slated for Feb. 28 in Arizona and
Michigan. If Romney wins both states, the race will probably be over.
However, if Santorum can pull off a victory that day, he will be far
more than the latest flavor of the month.
Read this and other columns at Townhall
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