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Human
Events...
As
the
boomers head for the barn
by Patrick
J. Buchanan
05/15/2012
When the
April figures on unemployment were released May 4, they were more than
disappointing. They were deeply disturbing.
While the unemployment
rate had fallen from 8.2 percent to 8.1 percent, 342,000 workers had
stopped
looking for work. They had just dropped out of the labor market.
Only 63.6
percent of the U.S. working age population is now in the labor force,
the
lowest level since December 1981.
During the
Reagan, Bush I and Clinton years, participation in the labor force rose
steadily to a record 67 percent. The plunge since has been almost
uninterrupted.
Here is a
major cause of the economic malaise of the 21st century, a condition
over which
a president has little control. A shrinking share of our population is
carrying
an ever-expanding army of dependents.
If this
were a result of American women going home to have kids, that would be,
as it was
after World War II, a manifestation of national vigor and health.
But that is
not the case here.
The number
of Americans of working age not in the labor force grew in April from
87,897,000 to 88,419,000 -- by an astonishing 522,000. This is an
immense army
for the rest of society to carry.
Why are
Americans dropping out?
Some have
given up looking for jobs in towns they grew up in, because the jobs
are gone
and not coming back, and they don’t want to leave. Some are rejecting
the
low-wage unskilled work being offered, because the alternative --
unemployment
checks and federal and state welfare -- is not all that torturous.
With some,
the work incentive was never implanted. With others, the option of
moving back
in with the parents is not all that terrible.
America, it
seems, is becoming less like the country we grew up in, in its
attitudes about
work and idleness, and more like Europe.
Whatever
its causes, this social and economic torpor that seems beyond the
capacity of
presidents to correct or cure is a dark cloud over the hopes of Barack
Obama
for a second term.
And yet
another ominous cloud, no longer on the far horizon, is now directly
above: the
impending departure from the labor force of 70 million baby boomers in
the next
two decades.
According
to the Statistical Abstract of the United States, from Jan. 1, 1930, to
Dec.
31, 1935, there were 13 million births in the U.S. From January 1940
through
December 1945, there were 16 million.
This was
the Silent Generation, born in Depression and war. It never produced a
president, and never will, unless Ron Paul catches fire pretty quickly.
The
Greatest Generation gave us six presidents, starting with JFK and
ending with
Bush I. Our three most recent presidents -- Bill Clinton, Bush II,
Barack Obama
-- are all baby boomers
And here we
come to the heart of our next economic crisis.
If one adds
up all the children born between Jan. 1, 1946 and Jan. 1, 1965, the era
of the
great American baby boom, the total comes to 77 million babies born in
the
United States.
Why is this
so significant now?
Because
this year, 2012, the first wave of baby boomers, all those born in
1946, like
Clinton and George W. Bush, will reach 66, and eligibility for full
Social
Security and Medicare benefits. The boomers, en masse, will start
moving off
payrolls onto pension rolls.
Let us
assume the 77 million boomers are down to 72 million. This means that
over the
next 20 years, boomers will be retiring and reaching eligibility for
Social
Security and Medicare at a rate of 3.6 million a year, or 300,000 a
month, or
10,000 every day.
Three
hundred thousand a month leaving the labor force may help to explain
its
shrinkage. And as the boomers are the best-paid, best-educated
generation we
produced, the loss of their collective skills, abilities and tax
contributions
will be as heavy a blow to the nation as the funding of their Medicare
and
Social Security will be a burden to the taxpayers they leave behind in
the
labor force.
Since Roe
v. Wade, abortions have carried off 53 million of the generations that
were to
replace the boomers. While those 53 million lost have been partially
replaced
by 40 million immigrants, legal and illegal, our recent immigrants have
not
exhibited the same income- or tax-producing capacity as boomers.
In 1965,
LBJ announced his plan to convert our ordinary society into a Great
Society.
Since then, trillions have been spent.
The fruits
of that immense investment? The illegitimacy rate, dropout rate, crime
rate and
incarceration rate have set new records, as the test scores of high
school
students have plummeted to new lows.
Our labor
force is shrinking, the number of dependent U.S. adults is growing, our
social
programs are failing, and our best educated and most productive
generation is
retiring.
To borrow
from Merle Haggard, “Are the good times really over for good?”
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