Pew Research Center
Twitter Reaction to Events Often at Odds with Overall Public Opinion 

The reaction on Twitter to major political events and policy decisions often differs a great deal from public opinion as measured by surveys. This is the conclusion of a year-long Pew Research Center study that compared the results of national polls to the tone of tweets in response to eight major news events, including the outcome of the presidential election, the first presidential debate and major speeches by Barack Obama. 

At times the Twitter conversation is more liberal than survey responses, while at other times it is more conservative. Often it is the overall negativity that stands out. Much of the difference may have to do with both the narrow sliver of the public represented on Twitter as well as who among that slice chose to take part in any one conversation. 

A More Liberal Twitter Reaction to Some Events 

In some instances, the Twitter reaction was more pro-Democratic or liberal than the balance of public opinion. For instance, when a federal court ruled last February that a California law banning same-sex marriage was unconstitutional – a case that is now coming before the Supreme Court – the reaction on Twitter was quite positive. Twitter conversations about the ruling were much more positive than negative (46% vs. 8%). But public opinion, as measured in a national poll, ran the other direction: Of those who had heard about the ruling, just 33% were very happy or pleased with it, while 44% were disappointed or angry. 

And this was also evident when it came to the fall presidential campaign. For example, while polls showed that most voters said Mitt Romney gave the better performance in the first presidential debate, Twitter reaction was much more critical of Romney, according to an analysis of social media reaction to the debate. 

And when Obama won the election on Nov. 6, the post-election conversation on Twitter was very positive about his victory. The analysis showed an overwhelming majority (77%) of post-election Twitter comments about the outcome were positive about Obama’s victory while just 23% were negative. But a survey of voters in the days following the election found more mixed reactions to the election outcome: 52% said they were happy about Obama’s reelection while 45% were unhappy. 

This tilt to the Twitter conversation was evident throughout the fall campaign. In nearly every week from early September through the first week of November, the Twitter conversation about Romney was substantially more negative than the conversation about Obama. 

Still, the overall negativity on Twitter over the course of the campaign stood out. For both candidates, negative comments exceeded positive comments by a wide margin throughout the fall campaign season. But from September through November, Romney was consistently the target of more negative reactions than was Obama. 

Twitter Reactions Not Always More Liberal 

The pro-Democratic or liberal tilt of tweets was not always apparent in the Pew Research Center case studies. The reaction on Twitter to Obama’s second inaugural address and his 2012 State of the Union was not nearly as positive as public opinion… 

Read the rest of the article with graphs at Pew Research Center