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Redstate
When I Survey
By: Erick Erickson
October 28th, 2014
We stand a week from the final midterm election of Barack Obama’s
Presidential career. When I survey the field I do not see a wave
election for the GOP.
I never have seen a wave in the polling, at least not at the national
level. At the local level, I think we will see a lot of what we saw in
2010. It will be wavy. But while I think the GOP will take the Senate,
I do not think it will be by much.
Much of the success the GOP is going to have will be in spite of its
best efforts to lose. Many of the party’s major difficulties this cycle
have come from its chief consultants and party organizations who have
seemed more intent on beating conservatives than Democrats.
When I survey the election as it is finally shaping up, I get a sense
there will be a bigger night for the GOP than I thought a few months
ago. It looks like it is trending away from the small national gains I
expected to larger national gains. But there is something else I see:
paper.
First, success will paper over deep problems for Republicans. Its
consultants, though they want to win, have structured a system whereby
they make millions even in a loss. Many will be heralded as political
geniuses when they would otherwise be seen as second rate hucksters and
con-artists. Frankly, there are too many consultants and aides in the
GOP in Washington who, were they not successful, would probably be in
jail for fraud, assault, or worse.
But in structuring a system where they win even if they lose, they have
managed to paper over their abusive behavior toward female interns,
donors, constituents, and often even candidates. Should things go well
for the GOP, all will be forgotten and many who should be removed from
the process will further embed into the system.
Papering over their issues too will be evangelical conservatives. Many
of them have grown worried about the direction of the country. They
have made an idol of it. More interested in the nation than their
faith, they’ve decided to enact their faith through their politics.
They will get a reprieve.
For the rest of this article and more, go to Redstate
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