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The Daily Signal
Why the
Abortion Rate Is Declining
Chuck Donovan
September 01, 2014
Over the most recent decade for which data are available (2001–2011),
the overall U.S. abortion rate, calculated as the annual number of
abortions per 1,000 women of childbearing age (15 to 44), has dropped,
continuing a trend that first appeared in 1980. The decline has been
steeper since 1990, with a brief plateau in the middle of the past
decade. The 2011 rate for the nation is the lowest since 1973.
Discussions of U.S. abortion trends must always be accompanied by
caveats. The United States has an incomplete national abortion
reporting system and what is published by government agencies is
subject to wide variation regarding both content and time frames. The
most comprehensive report, from the Guttmacher Institute, is not issued
each year; is voluntary, like the national surveillance reports issued
annually by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control; and is subject to
omissions that, the authors acknowledge, make estimates necessary.
Several U.S. jurisdictions with particularly permissive abortion laws,
including California, Maryland, and New Hampshire, gather little or no
official information.
Nonetheless, the overall direction of U.S. abortion practice is clear.
A closer look at individual states that have consistent data confirms
this trend. Between 2001 and 2011, the U.S. abortion rate, based on
Guttmacher Institute data, declined by 19.1 percent from 20.9 abortions
per 1,000 women ages 15 to 44, to 16.9 per 1,000, the lowest rate since
1973 when it was 16.3. Of the jurisdictions (including the District of
Columbia) whose abortion facilities reported data to Guttmacher between
1999 and 2011, a total of 45 reported reductions in their abortion
rates, while only five states— Connecticut, Maine, New Hampshire,
Pennsylvania, and West Virginia—reported increases. Overall, 33 states
have abortion rates below the national average; 11 are consistently
above the national norm, including California and New York.
Explanations for the long-term decline in U.S. abortions involve both
impressionistic and medico-legal factors, each of which may be making a
contribution. Michael New (2014) has shown that abortion laws like
parental notification, Medicaid funding restrictions, and properly
designed informed consent all reduce the incidence of abortion. At the
same time, the Guttmacher Institute notes a recent increase in the use
of long-lasting or fixed forms of family planning (e.g., intrauterine
devices and injectables that have lower failure rates than alternative
methods that are more subject to user error).
Perhaps more importantly, six of the 10 most recent Gallup polls
(between May 2009 and May 2014) that examine the question have
demonstrated that a majority of respondents self-identify as pro-life.
That increase may be both cause and effect of parental decisions to
respond to unexpected pregnancies by carrying the child to term. James
Taranto of The Wall Street Journal has described this as the “Roe
Effect”—the shift in the belief characteristics of a population where
birth rates, while declining overall, show strong divergence between
parents indisposed to abortion and parents for whom it is an acceptable
response.
Nonetheless, the U.S. abortion rate continues to rank near the highest
quartile among Western nations. Our laws are among the globe’s most
permissive, and the continuation of a positive three-decade trend
cannot be presumed.
Read the article with links and charts at The Daily Signal
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