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The Daily Signal
The Most
Glaring Flaws in Obama’s Iran Deal
James Phillips
July 14, 2015
The Obama administration’s nuclear agreement with Iran has major flaws
that could dangerously undermine the long-term national security
interests of the United States and its allies.
Although the administration entered the negotiations pledging to cut
off all pathways to a nuclear weapon, the agreement amounts to little
more than a diplomatic speed bump that will delay, but not permanently
halt, Iran’s drive for a nuclear weapons capability.
The agreement in effect legitimizes Iran as a nuclear threshold state.
Once key restrictions on uranium enrichment expire in 10 to 15 years,
Iran will have the option to develop an industrial scale enrichment
program that will make it easier for it to sprint cross that threshold.
Iran used red lines and deadlines to wear down the administration,
which played a strong hand weakly.
The administration undermined its own bargaining position by making it
clear that it wanted a nuclear agreement more than Tehran seems to have
wanted one, despite the fact that Tehran needed an agreement more for
economic reasons.
The administration’s downplaying of the military option and
front-loading of sanctions relief early in the negotiations reduced
Iranian incentives to make concessions.
This gave the Iranians bargaining leverage they have used shrewdly.
Iran dug in its heels on key red lines proclaimed by Supreme Leader Ali
Khamenei, while the administration’s red lines gradually became blurred
pink lines.
Iran’s nuclear infrastructure is left largely intact. Centrifuges will
be mothballed but not dismantled.
Iran’s illicit nuclear facilities Natanz and Fordow, whose operations
were supposed to be shut down under multiple U.N. Security Council
resolutions, have now been legitimized, despite the fact that they were
built covertly in violation of the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty.
Iran is essentially rewarded for cheating under the agreement.
It gained a better deal on uranium enrichment than Washington has
offered to its own allies.
Taiwan, South Korea and the United Arab Emirates were denied enrichment
arrangements that Iran now has pocketed.
Instead of dismantling Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, the agreement
dismantles the sanctions that brought Tehran to the negotiating table
in the first place.
This fact is not lost on our allies, friends and “frenemies” in the
region.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who understandably sees
Iran’s potential nuclear threat as an existential issue, denounced the
deal as “a historic mistake.”
Sunni Arab states threatened by Iran are likely to hedge their bets and
take out insurance by working to expand their own nuclear options.
Saudi Arabia already has let it be known that it will demand the same
concessions on uranium enrichment that Iran received.
The Saudis have begun negotiations to buy French nuclear reactors and
this civilian program could become the foundation for a weapons program
down the line.
Other Arab states and Turkey are likely to tee up their own nuclear
programs as a prudent counterweight to offset to Iran’s expanding
nuclear potential, after some of the restrictions on its uranium
enrichment program automatically sunset.
The end result could be accelerated nuclear proliferation and a
possible nuclear arms race in the most volatile region in the world.
Another major problem is verification of Iranian compliance.
The administration’s initial insistence on “anytime/anywhere”
inspections was downgraded to “sometimes/some places.”
Iran has up to 14 days to weigh the requests of International Atomic
Energy Agency inspectors. If it decides to object, its objections would
be relayed to an arbitration committee that would have 7 days to rule.
If it rules against Iran, Tehran would have another 3 days to arrange
an inspection.
This gives Iran up to 24 days to move, hide or destroy materials sought
by inspectors. This is far from a foolproof system, particularly in
light of Iran’s long history of cheating.
Sanctions relief is another potential headache. Tehran would benefit by
the release of about $150 billion of its money frozen in overseas
accounts.
Ultimately the Iranian economy would be boosted by tens of billions of
dollars more through a surge of oil revenues as oil sanctions are
lifted.
This could help Iran reshape the regional balance of power and
establish hegemony over Iraq, Yemen, important oil resources and oil
supply routes.
Much of this money will go to fund the Assad regime, Hezbollah, Yemeni
Houthi rebels, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and other terrorist
groups funded by Iran.
This would rapidly lead to escalation of the wars, shadow wars and
civil wars already taking place around the Middle East.
The dangers posed by Iran’s enhanced ability to finance global
terrorism would be compounded by the administration’s last minute
capitulation on the U.N. arms embargo, which will be gradually eased if
Iran remains in compliance with the agreement.
This would allow Iran to upgrade its conventional weapons through
imports from foreign suppliers and enable it to more easily arm its
foreign allies and surrogates.
The bottom line is that the Obama administration now has signed an
agreement that will expand Iran’s power and influence, strain U.S.
relations with its regional friends, weaken long-standing
non-proliferation goals on restricting access to sensitive nuclear
technologies and contribute to the evolution of a multi-polar nuclear
Middle East.
Read this and other articles with links at The Daily Signal
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