|
|
 |
|
The
views expressed
on this page are soley those of the author and do not
necessarily
represent the views of County News Online
|
 |
Federal News Radio
Trump’s
blueprint for feds
By Mike Causey
November 14, 2016
If the mechanic gave your car an expensive overhaul and clean bill of
health and it exploded the next day on the Beltway, would you take
what’s left of it back to him to repair?
If you paid big bucks for a poodle puppy that grew into an eight-foot
long Komodo Dragon, would you patronize that pet shop again?
If you go to the salon for an expensive treatment and your hair falls
out overnight, is there a message there?
If I promised to deliver a copy of President-elect Donald Trump’s plan
to manage the federal workforce, would you send me $100 (cash, please)
and pay shipping and handling? Would you bite?
And yet the media — which mostly predicted he wouldn’t get the
nomination, then that he would lose the election — is now telling us
what the President-elect is planning for the federal workforce when it
is entirely possible he hasn’t decided yet. Or, if he has a plan, that
it might change when he gets briefings and a clearer picture of what
federal agencies do. And why.
On election day — that would be last Tuesday — Politico, one of the
best and most respected publications dealing with American politics had
the following headlines:
Udall, Gregoire are on Clinton’s shortlist for Interior secretary. What
that story missed was that there isn’t going to be a Clinton cabinet or
who unlikely winner (who won!) Trump would appoint to that job.
Final take: Democrats slightly favored to win Senate. It didn’t make
clear who slightly favored that because it didn’t happen. The
Republicans took the White House and kept the House and Senate. If you
prefer one-party (as opposed to divided) government you are in for a
treat. Or not.
In the run-up to the election, most major newspapers and networks wrote
off Trump’s chances. Even as they fed his publicity machine with
thousands of (free to him) hours of publicity. Bad, it was thought at
the time. Except he won.
It works both ways. In 1948, the conservative Chicago Tribune ran the
now famous headline Dewey Defeats Truman on election day. The picture
of President Harry S. Truman, holding up that newspaper, is one of the
most famous in American history. And it should be a lesson to
predictors everywhere.
So what does it mean to you, working stiff, career civil servant, that
in January you will have a new boss without any civilian government or
military service? Does that make a difference? Will government hiring
be frozen and, if it is (it’s been done many times before) which
agencies will be immediately exempted?
What about pay raises? White-collar feds will be getting a 1-to-1.6
percent raise in January 2017. They’ve gotten a 1 percent raise each
January in 2016, 2015 and 2014. Their pay raises were frozen in 2013,
2012 and 2011 after the White House recommended a two-year freeze and
House Republicans extended the freeze another year. Who saw that coming?
Interestingly, the one guy who got it right doesn’t pay any attention
to polls. He’s Allan J. Lichtman, a professor at D.C.’s American
University. He uses a 13-point historical factor to predict the winner.
He’s batting 1,000. He’s picked the winner in every race since 1984,
including the Bush-Gore contest which was ultimately decided by the
Supreme Court.
Bottom Line: Many if, not most, U.S. newspapers do an excellent job of
telling us what happened yesterday. Many cable networks and local TV
stations do well informing us what is happened now —breaking news. But
when it comes to predicting the future the media is about as good (and
sometimes less objective) than Madam Zelda the Tarot card reader. That
said…
If you still believe that we news-and-opinion types really know what
we’re talking about when it comes to political predictions, remember my
Trump Revealed offer. And again, cash only, please. It simplifies
bookkeeping.
Read this and other articles at Federal News Radio
|
|
|
|
