Dayton Daily News...
Housing crisis preventing Ohioans from leaving state  
December 5, 2011 

Ohio lost the fewest number of residents to other states in 2010 than it had in at least five years, according to census survey data, an indication that the troubled housing market is anchoring people to their homes and preventing them from moving to retire or seek employment opportunities. 

During typical recessions, domestic migration increases because people move to better job markets, economists said. But this recession was different because it was not region-specific and the flagging housing market shackled people in place. 

Older residents approaching retirement age also are working longer and not migrating to warmer climates. 

“People can’t move to take advantage of opportunities where there are jobs, because they have houses that are underwater or houses they cannot sell,” said Rob Greenbaum, associate professor of public policy and management with the John Glenn School of Public Affairs at The Ohio State University. 

In the Dayton metro area, about 20 percent of residential properties with a mortgage were upside in the third quarter of 2011, meaning borrowers owed more on their mortgages than their homes are worth, according to a new report by CoreLogic. In Ohio, almost 23 percent of households with a mortgage last quarter were underwater. 

In 2010, an estimated 188,013 people relocated to other states from Ohio, according to a Dayton Daily News analysis of data from the American Community Survey. In contrast, about 206,250 people reported leaving Ohio for other states in 2009 and 218,825 residents left in 2008, according to census data. 

Debra Daniels, 44, of Dayton, said she plans to move to Atlanta in January if she is unable to find a job before then. 

Daniels, who has been unemployed since December of last year, said she cannot imagine Atlanta’s job market being worse that Dayton’s, because months of hunting here for work came up empty. 

She said it will be tough moving the two children she takes care of to a new city and leaving some family members behind, but she has no choice. 

“I’ve got to go,” she said. “If I have nothing in 30 days, I will be leaving.” 

Daniels lives in a residence without a long-term lease, which gives her the ability to leave at any time. But some Ohioans are not moving because home values have tumbled and they are unable to get the equity out of their houses, said Ned Hill, dean of the Maxine Goodman Levin College of Urban Affairs at Cleveland State University. 

“It’s the first time in history where a house can keep its owners hostage,” he said. “Households in America lost 30 percent of total equity value in housing due to the crash of the housing market, which is just huge.” 

Young people with bachelor’s degrees are the most mobile part of the population, because they work in national labor markets and they tend not to have assets that tie them down, Hill said. But they are being forced to move back in with their families or return to school because jobs are scarce nationwide. 

Younger people have an unemployment rate above the national average. 

“The recession is hurting the job prospects of people of all ages, but the credit crunch and inability to buy homes makes it especially hard on young people who were hoping to get on with their lives and careers,” said Bill Frey, a demographer with the Brookings Institution and a research professor at the University of Michigan. 

Older people are delaying retirement and choosing not to move to warmer climates because of the economy and the difficulty in selling their homes, economists said. 

Looking to the future, Hill said shale drilling in Ohio could spawn industrial development that results in job creation and causes more people to stay in Ohio or migrate to the state. 

Bob Wilson, president of the Dayton Area Board of Realtors, said he believes more people are staying in Ohio because its housing is simply more affordable than many other parts of the country. He said historically low interest rates and great home prices caused home sales to be up all of the last four months. 

“If you were to sell your home here and move to another state, you may spend a lot more money on your home there than you would here,” he said. 

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