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What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls
Saturday, December 03, 2011 

Flavor of the month or the next presidential nominee of the Republican Party? 

As Herman Cain’s campaign disintegrates, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich has surged to the largest national lead held by any candidate so far in the race for the GOP’s 2012 nomination.   Gingrich earns 38% of the vote from Likely Republican Primary Voters. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney is a distant second at 17%. No other candidate reaches double digits. 

Gingrich also now edges President Obama by two points in a hypothetical Election 2012 matchup – 45% to 43% - after trailing by 12 points two weeks ago. 

Earlier in the year, both Texas Governor Rick Perry and Cain followed a similar path to take a slight lead over the president. However, their time as front-runners quickly came to an end. Neither man led the president more than a single time in a Rasmussen Reports poll. It remains to be seen whether Gingrich follows that path or is able to retain his status as the leading alternative to Romney. Scott Rasmussen discussed Gingrich’s surge with Fox News earlier this week. 

Romney is again running neck and neck with the president in their ongoing matchup after the president opened up a six-point lead over his GOP rival the week before. It was the widest gap between the two men since mid-August. Now it’s Obama 42%, Romney 40%. Romney is the only GOP presidential hopeful who has been ahead of the president in more than one survey. 

Cain continues to trail Obama by 10 points – 46% to 36% - after edging ahead 43% to 41% in mid-October. However, this survey was taken prior to the claims aired Monday by an Atlanta woman that she has had a 13-year extramarital affair with Cain. The GOP candidate is expected by many to end his run for the White House as early as today. Fifty-one percent (51%) of voters think that’s a good idea. 

What a difference a month makes in the Republican race. In September, Perry was leading in Iowa and running second in New Hampshire. In October, Cain took the lead in Iowa and was running second in New Hampshire. Now, Gingrich is gaining ground in New Hampshire. Romney is still ahead among Likely GOP Primary Voters in the Granite State with 34% support, but Gingrich now runs second with 24% of the vote. This is the first survey since the influential statewide Manchester Union Leader newspaper endorsed Gingrich. 

Gingrich made news recently when he suggested that the Occupy Wall Street protesters should stop protesting and get jobs after taking a bath. Voters are evenly divided over whether that’s a good idea. But 64% of Republican voters agree with Gingrich. 

The president continues to trail a generic Republican candidate in weekly matchups, although he generally leads most named GOP hopefuls. 

Obama’s job approval numbers improved slightly in November. His full-month Presidential Approval Index rating for November was -19%, up three points from October’s all-time low of -22 and the president’s best showing in four months. From October 2009 through July of this year though, the president’s approval index rating stayed between -10 and -17. 

The president got some good news at week’s end, with new government figures showing that the national unemployment rate fell from 9.0% to 8.6% in November. This mirrors the five-point jump in the Rasmussen Employment Index earlier in the week. Generally speaking, an increase in the index, which measures workers’ perceptions of the labor market each month, suggests the upcoming government reports on job creation will be better than the prior month. 

The Employment Index is now the highest since June and is close to where it was at the beginning of 2011. Overall levels of consumer confidence as measured by  the Rasmussen Consumer Index,  however, are still down from the beginning of the year. 

Also, confidence among adults nationwide that the U.S. economy will be stronger a year from now remains at an all-time low. Only 27% believe the economy will be stronger in one year, showing no change from September and the lowest finding in regular tracking since early 2009. Prior to September, the number of adults expecting a stronger economy in a year’s time ranged from 31% to 45%. 

Americans continue to share gloomy assessments of the housing and stock markets, too, and half still believe another 1930s-like Depression is possible in the near future. 

Just 16% of Likely Voters say the country is heading in the right direction, down 13 points from this time last year. Since the third week in July, the number of voters who are confident in the nation’s current course has resembled levels measured in the final months of the Bush administration. 

With voters continuing to focus much of their unhappiness on Congress, ratings for the national legislators now match the lowest levels ever recorded. Just six percent (6%) rate the job Congress is doing as good or excellent.  Sixty-eight percent (68%) view Congress’ job performance as poor. 

Voters overwhelmingly believe it’s important to their lives which political party controls Congress, but Republicans feel more strongly than Democrats about it. 

Republicans hold a five-point advantage over Democrats – 43% to 38% -- on the most recent Generic Congressional Ballot. The two were tied two weeks earlier, the only week since July 2009 that the GOP has not led on the ballot. 

One likely explanation for this lead is that Republicans continue to be trusted more than Democrats when it comes to the economy, the number one issue on voters’ minds. On all 10 important issues regularly tracked by Rasmussen Reports including health care and national security, voters now trust Republicans more on seven of them. 

Speaking of health care, in the first tracking poll since the U.S. Supreme Court agreed to review the constitutionality of the new national health care law, most voters to continue to favor the law’s repeal and think repeal is likely. 

A NATO “friendly fire” incident that cost the lives of 24 Pakistani soldiers has added to the president’s headaches in Afghanistan and further damaged the strained U.S.-Pakistan relationship. Hardly any Americans now view Pakistan as an ally of the United States, and there is strong support for ending all foreign aid to that country. 

Most voters also remain ready to bring U.S. troops home from Afghanistan, the nation’s longest-running war. Fifty-nine percent (59%) want the troops to come home either immediately or within a year, up from 39% in September 2009 and 51% this past June. Just 29% oppose any firm timetable for withdrawal. 

Read the rest of the article with links at Rasmussen