Politico...
Have Democrats
cracked the code for 2012?
By Alexander Burns
5/25/11
The battle over the federal deficit hasn’t flipped in favor of the
Democrats. The GOP isn’t suddenly at grave risk of losing its House
majority.
But after two years of getting pummeled over spending and the size of
government, Democrats now appear to have found a political weapon
that’s capable of evening out the fight: Medicare.
The popular entitlement program wasn’t the sole issue behind Kathy
Hochul’s upset victory in a New York special election Tuesday night,
but strategists in both parties say it was an important force. And for
the first time since November, the idea that Democrats might have a
shot at winning back the House is no longer a laughing matter.
The three-way race between Hochul, Republican Assemblywoman Jane Corwin
and self-funding independent Jack Davis offers at best mixed omens for
the 2012 campaign. Hochul drew a stronger-than-expected 47 percent of
the vote, and Corwin won an anemic 42 percent. But the 9 percent Davis
took as a third-party candidate prevented any candidate from getting a
telling majority.
A former Democrat running as a tea party standard bearer, Davis likely
skewed the results against the GOP nominee. Yet Hochul wasn’t exactly
fighting on even ground, either: Republicans hold a registration edge
in the 26th District and John McCain won the area in 2008 by 6
percentage points. She also was outspent by the wealthy Corwin and
Republican outside groups.
To Hochul supporters, there was no question what turned the tide of the
campaign. At the Democrat’s election night celebration at a UAW hall in
Amherst, an elated crowd chanted, “Medicare,” over and over again as
Hochul declared victory.
“We had the issues on our side,” Hochul told her supporters, asking
rhetorically: “Did we not have the right issues on our side?”
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