Rasmussen...
What They Told Us:
Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls
Saturday, May 28, 2011
Voters still seem to share Ronald Reagan’s view that government is the
problem, not the solution.
While President Obama and both parties in Congress talk loudly about
spending cuts, 50% of Likely U.S. Voters think it’s more likely the
government will go bankrupt and be unable to pay its debt before the
federal budget is balanced. Just 33% believe the budget is more likely
to be balanced first.
Voters clearly recognize that government spending has risen over the
past decade, and most favor a cap on annual spending increases limited
to population growth and inflation. Government spending in the United
States has grown faster than the growth of population plus inflation
every year but one since 1965.
Still, while most voters are looking for serious, long-term spending
cuts, they don’t seem to recognize what that’s going to take. The
majority of federal spending is allotted to defense, Social Security
and Medicare, and just 47% of voters recognize that it is necessary to
make major changes in those areas to make truly significant long-term
cuts in government spending.
One area to cut that the majority of voters still agree on is a repeal
of the new national health care law. Although the new
Republican-dominated House has voted to repeal the law, that effort is
stalled on the Democratic-controlled Senate. Voters are now evenly
divided over the likelihood of the controversial measure actually being
repealed.
Only nine percent (9%) of voters now give Congress positive marks for
its job performance, tying the most negative assessment ever - for the
second month in a row.
Republican voters are slightly less critical of the job their
representatives in Congress are doing, but most still think the
legislators are out of sync with the party base. Democratic voters, by
contrast, are not as happy with the performance of their congressmen as
they were a year ago.
Republicans hold just a two-point lead over Democrats on the latest
Generic Congressional Ballot. That ties the smallest gap between the
parties since October 2009.
Voters, regardless of their place on the political spectrum, continue
to question the ethics of those who represent them. People regularly go
back and forth between government and private industry jobs in
Washington, D.C., for example, and while the practice raises
conflict-of-interest questions, it’s generally quite legal. But 51% of
American Adults think that when a company offers a government regulator
a job, it’s a form of a bribe. Just 22% say it’s not a bribe, but
another 27% are not sure.
Americans overwhelmingly believe that government regulators should be
banned from working for companies they regulate for at least five
years. A sizable number also think companies that offer jobs to
regulators should be banned from doing business with the government
altogether.
Even in an area like disaster relief, voters see the dirty hand of
politics. The vast majority (89%) believes the federal government’s
role in disaster relief is at least somewhat important, including 55%
who say it is Very Important. But 53% believe politics plays a part in
the federal government’s response to specific disasters. Only 26%
disagree.
As for the president, 46% now rate his leadership as good or excellent,
including 25% who say he is an excellent leader. Thirty-four percent
(34%) see Obama’s leadership as poor. This is consistent with findings
for months.
Just eight percent (8%) of voters nationwide currently rate national
security issues such as the War on Terror as their top voting issue.
That’s down from 20% on Election Day 2008 when Obama was elected and
down from 41% on Election Day 2004 when George W. Bush was reelected.
The relative unimportance of national security issues helps explain why
the president’s overall job approval rating showed little lasting
change despite overwhelming approval for the mission to kill Osama bin
Laden.
Rasmussen Reports tracking data shows that 46% now rate the economy as
their top voting issue, a figure that has remained fairly constant
during Obama’s time in office. When Bush was reelected in 2004, just
26% rated the economy as their top issue.
For the third week in a row, voters remain almost evenly divided over
whether they want to reelect the president or elect a Republican to
replace him. Obama earns support from 45% of Likely Voters nationwide,
while a generic Republican candidate picks up 44% of the vote.
Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate.
New Jersey Governor Chris Christie is frequently mentioned as a
possible GOP challenger to Obama, but he insists he’s not running. In
Democratic-leaning New Jersey, both Christie and former Massachusetts
Governor Mitt Romney are within single digits of Obama in hypothetical
2012 election match-ups. Forty-nine percent (49%) of Likely New Jersey
Voters favor Obama, while Christie earns 44% support. That’s closer
than the two men run nationally. Romney trails Obama 49% to 43% in the
Garden State.
All early polling for the 2012 election should be viewed with caution,
however, given the potential for change between now and Election Day.
“If the economy improves dramatically over the next year-and-a-half,
the president will be virtually impossible to beat,” explains Scott
Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports. “However, if there is a
double-dip recession, it will be hard for the Republicans to lose. If
the economy shows little substantive change, the race could be very
competitive.”
The Rasmussen Consumer and Investors Indexes, which measure daily
confidence in both groups, showed little change over the past week.
Sixty-two percent (61%) of consumers say the U.S. economy is currently
in a recession, while 19% disagree. Among investors, 63% say the
economy is in a recession, but 20% say that’s not the case.
Sixty-three percent (63%) of Likely U.S. Voters remain concerned that
Japan’s recent earthquake and tsunami will hurt the U.S. economy. With
problems continuing at the Fukushima nuclear plant, voters also are
still worried about nuclear power plant safety at home, but only 29%
believe the United States should systematically phase out the use of
nuclear power plants over the next 50 years. However, support for
building more nuclear plants (38%) is now at its lowest level in nearly
three years of Rasmussen Reports surveying.
The economy appears to be impacting summer vacation plans, too. Just
38% of American Adults plan to take a summer vacation this year,
virtually unchanged from last year.
Read the full story with links at Rasmussen
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