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What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls
Saturday, November 19, 2011 

For President Obama and congressional Democrats, it was a breakthrough week of sorts. For Republicans, yet another presidential hopeful appears headed for the top. For all of us, it was another week of economic business as usual. 

The Rasmussen Consumer and Investor Indexes, which measure daily confidence among both groups, showed slight improvement this week over recent months, but roughly 60% of both groups say the country is still in a recession. 

The U.S. Census Bureau has just released figures showing that nearly one-in-five men ages 25 to 34 are now living at home with their parents and that this is having a significant impact on the economy. Eighty-six percent (86%) of Americans believe it is more common for grown children to live with their parents compared to 20 years ago, and 72% say they or someone they know currently has grown children living with them. 

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke insists the Federal Reserve is keeping inflation down, but Americans overwhelmingly say they are paying more for groceries these days and expect to pay even more in a year’s time. 

For the second straight month, Americans are less confident than ever in the nation’s banking industry. Just 34% are at least somewhat confident in the stability of the U.S. banking industry, including only five percent (5%) who are Very Confident. To put this in context, overall confidence in U.S. banks is now lower than it was in February 2009 in the early days of the bailout era.  Prior to the financial industry meltdown in the fall of 2008, 68% expressed confidence in the stability of the U.S. banking system. 

Driving financial worries in large part is the continuing depressed state of the housing market, and now government-backed mortgage lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are seeking billions more in taxpayer money to stay afloat. Through these institutions, the federal government has been guaranteeing low-cost subprime mortgages to many who could not qualify for a mortgage without government backing. Their losses on these mortgages now exceed $300 billion. 

Americans have a lower opinion than ever of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Just 27% agree with their policies and think the government’s emphasis should be on making it possible for more people to own a home. Sixty-six percent (66%) believe instead that the federal government should be concerned primarily with ensuring that the only people who get a mortgage are those who can afford to pay it back. 

Looking across the Atlantic, most Americans still expect at least one of the financially troubled countries in Europe to default on its debt and worry that Europe’s bad economy will ultimately have a major negative impact on the United States. 

Only 18% of voters now think the country is heading in the right direction, down eight points from this time last year. Since the third week in July, the number of voters who are confident in the nation’s current course has resembled levels measured in the final months of the Bush administration. 

Most Americans are looking for a major reduction in federal government spending as one way to give the economy a boost and remain willing to put everything on the table when it comes to spending cuts including defense. At this point, however, it appears the congressional super committee tasked with coming up with over a trillion dollars in spending cuts is unlikely to meet its Thanksgiving deadline. If they don’t, $1.5 trillion in automatic cuts over the next 10 years are supposed to kick in. 

Clearly, in the minds of most voters, Congress remains the problem, not the solution. For the first time in nearly two-and-a-half years, Democrats and Republicans are tied on the Generic Congressional Ballot. Republicans have been leading on the ballot every week since July 2009. But now 41% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican in their district’s congressional race if the election was held now, while the identical number (41%) would choose the Democrat instead. 

Similarly, President Obama has experienced a slight uptick in his Job Approval rating in recent days as measured by the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.  After trailing in nearly four months of weekly surveys, the president is also now essentially tied with a generic Republican candidate in a hypothetical Election 2012 matchup. Obama earns his highest level of support in nearly six months. 

On the state level, it’s equally competitive, with the president tied with a Generic Republican candidate in Michigan and trailing slightly in Pennsylvania and North Carolina. 

The president continues to run better when his Republican opponent has a name, with only former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney consistently neck-and-neck with Obama in national polls. Congresswoman Michele Bachmann and businessman Herman Cain still trail the president by double digits in hypothetical 2012 matchups. 

Obama has opened a wider gap over Republican presidential hopeful Newt Gingrich, even as the former House speaker seems to be enjoying a bounce in support among Likely GOP Primary Voters. Gingrich now has jumped to the front of the Republican pack among caucus-goers in Iowa with 32% support, followed by Romney in distant second at 19%. Cain, who led in Iowa last month, drops to third with 13% of the vote. 

Several of the Republican candidates are pushing major tax reform plans, and support is strong among voters for replacing the entire income tax code with something simpler with lower rates. Many believe a reformed tax code would help the economy, but a flat tax is not what most voters want to see. 

Early this week, the U.S. Supreme Court introduced itself into the election cycle with its decision to review the constitutionality of the president’s signature achievement, the new national health care law. A decision is expected next fall. Voters overwhelming reject the notion that the federal government has the authority to force anyone to buy health insurance. This so-called individual mandate is at the center of the legal controversy. Regardless of its constitutionality, most voters continue to favor repeal of the health care law passed last year by Congress. 

As authorized by that law, the president has announced a $1 billion taxpayer-funded jobs plan to increase the health care workforce. The effort in part is intended to counteract the stalemate in Congress over his previous jobs bill proposal. A modest plurality of voters nationwide opposes the health care jobs initiative and most think the president should wait to reach an agreement with Congress before enacting any jobs plan. 

Voters continue to frown on government stimulus efforts but remain divided over what role they’d like the government to play in the struggling economy. More voters than ever look back negatively on the government bailouts of banks, auto companies and insurance companies. 

Read the rest of the article with links at Rasmussen