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What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls 
October 17, 2011

Republican presidential hopeful Jon Huntsman quipped at last Tuesday night’s debate that at first he thought rival Herman Cain’s 9-9-9 plan was the price of a pizza. Cain, the former CEO of Godfather’s Pizza, wasn’t amused, but for now at least he’s having the last laugh. 

Following the debate focused on economic issues, Cain is tied with former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney in the race for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination.   Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is the only other candidate in double digits. Republican voters think either front-runner would be likely to defeat President Obama, but most still expect Romney to be the nominee. 

Romney remains neck-and-neck with Obama in the latest hypothetical Election 2012 matchup of the two men. They’ve been virtually tied for several weeks. But now Cain has pulled within three points of the president – 42% to 39% - in their latest matchup. This is Cain’s best showing to date. Obama held a seven-point lead over the Georgia businessman in late August. 

Forty percent (40%) of Likely U.S. Voters favor Cain’s 9-9-9 tax reform plan once they’re told that it would eliminate all existing federal taxes and replace them with a nine percent flat tax on household income (allowing only charitable deductions), a nine percent corporate tax and a nine percent national sales tax. Most GOP voters (56%) support the plan, compared to 27% of Democrats and 36% of unaffiliated voters. However, the large number of people with no opinion means that these numbers could shift significantly if Cain remains a top contender for the GOP nomination. 

Most voters also feel that if the 9-9-9 plan becomes law, Congress won’t wait long to raise the tax rates higher. Cain acknowledged and addressed that concern during an interview with Scott Rasmussen for the Rasmussen Report on radio. The candidate said his plan would require a two-thirds vote in Congress to raise taxes. 

Catch The Rasmussen Report – and give Scott a call – this Sunday live at 3:06 p.m. Eastern time. It can be heard on WLS 890AM in Chicago, WMAL 105.9 FM and 630 AM in Washington, D.C. and online everywhere. 

Texas Governor Rick Perry now trails Obama by double digits – 49% to 35% - in their Election 2012 matchup. That’s a dramatic change for the former GOP front-runner who was within single digits of the president in recent weeks. Before he entered his first debate as a presidential candidate, Perry held a modest lead over Obama. 

Gingrich may have moved into a distant third place in the GOP primary race, but the former House speaker trails the president by 15 points – 49% to 34% - in their general election matchup. Support for Gingrich is up slightly from 30% in June. 

A generic Republican candidate still leads Obama in a hypothetical 2012 contest, as he has for three months now. But 72% of voters complain that presidential election campaigns last too long. Only 18% disagree. 

Voters remain unhappy with the president’s job performance, and his fortunes next fall are tied strongly to the fate of the economy. A majority (51%) of voters continue to blame the nation’s current economic problems on  the recession that began under President George W. Bush rather than Obama’s economic policies. Forty-three percent (43%) blame the current president’s policies more. 

But just 16% of all voters now say the country is heading in the right direction, down 16 points from this time last year. Since the third week in July, the number of voters who are confident in the nation’s current course has resembled levels measured in the final months of the Bush administration, with voter confidence remaining in the narrow range of 14% to 19%. 

Confidence in the stability of the nation’s banks, meanwhile, has fallen to a new low. Just 35% of American Adults are even somewhat confident in the stability of the U.S. banking industry, two points below the previous low reached in August. To put this in context, overall confidence in U.S. banks is currently lower than it was in February 2009 in the early days of the bailout era. Prior to the financial industry meltdown in the fall of 2008, 68% expressed confidence in the stability of the U.S. banking system. 

The Rasmussen Consumer Index, which measures the economic confidence of consumers on a daily basis, fell five points on Friday to its lowest level since March 11, 2009. Consumer confidence is down 10 points from three months ago. 

While few Americans report paying higher interest rates than they did a year ago, only 33% are at least somewhat confident that the Federal Reserve will be able to keep inflation under control and interest rates down, with just seven percent (7%) who are Very Confident. A year ago, 41% were at least somewhat confident that the Fed, which came under strong criticism at the recent GOP debate, would be able to control these areas. 

The United States is putting pressure on Europe to deal with its debt crisis as quickly as possible to avoid a global economic meltdown. Although most Americans expect at least one of the European countries to default on its debt in the next few years, half believe it’s still possible for the U.S. economy to recover even if Europe’s remains in trouble. 

To spur the nation’s anemic job growth, the president is hoping to raise taxes on wealthier Americans to help fund his job creation plan. While most voters continue to oppose tax increases, 47% say they would support a candidate who plans to raise taxes for the wealthiest Americans over one who promises to oppose all tax increases (38%). 

Speaking of the economy, Americans still aren’t following news of the Occupy Wall Street protests very closely and have mixed opinions of both the protesters and their authenticity. Thirty-six percent (36%) of voters have a favorable opinion of the Occupy Wall Street protesters, while 41% offer an unfavorable opinion. Forty-three percent (43%) believe the protests are made up of citizens reflecting the concerns of their neighbors, but 38% say they are phony efforts drummed up by special interest groups and unions. These top-line numbers are broadly similar to perceptions of the congressional town hall protesters in the summer of 2009. 

The protesters two years ago were fired up in part by their opposition to the national health care law being proposed by the president and congressional Democrats. Although the law ultimately was passed, it remains highly unpopular. As a result of the new law, an independent panel recently recommended to the Obama administration how the government should decide what level of coverage most health insurance policies should be required to have. But voters strongly oppose a government-mandated level of health insurance coverage. 

While the health care debate continues to dominate the political landscape, most voters feel individual lifestyle choices – in short, personal responsibility - play a bigger role than their level of medical care in determining how healthy someone is. But there’s a wide partisan gap on the question.

On a positive note, confidence in the safety of the nation from terrorism has reached a new high. Fifty-five percent (55%) of Likely Voters now think the United States is safer today than it was before the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. In June 2004, just 36% said the country was safer. 

Overseas, however, as fighting drags on in Libya, support for U.S. military action there and confidence that a change of government in the North African country will be good for the United States have fallen to new lows. Voters continue to give a mixed response about the future of the war in Iraq, but remain more negative about the U.S. conflict in Afghanistan. 

Read this with links at Rasmussen