Cleveland Plain Dealer...
Sherrod Brown still holds lead against potential opponents, but President Obama’s Ohio standing is low
by Stephen Koff 

Washington -- Incumbent U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, holds a 13-point lead over his likely 2012 Republican opponent, Ohio Treasurer Josh Mandel, although Mandel is slowly gaining ground as the campaign comes into focus. 

But President Barack Obama has no such advantage over either of the GOP candidates currently considered front runners for their party’s nomination, a new poll of Ohio volters shows. Obama’s job approval rating in Ohio matches his lowest ever. 

The Quinnipiac University poll shows that if the election were held today, Obama would get 44 percent of the vote to former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney’s 42 percent. If Texas Gov. Rick Perry were the nominee, Obama would get 44 to Perry’s 41. 

The poll’s overall margin of error, 2.7 percentage points, makes either potential matchup a statistical tie, Quinnipiac says. But what is clear is that a majority of Ohioans disapprove of the way Obama is doing his job, with his disapproval rating at 53 percent. Fifty-one percent of polled voters said Obama did not deserve to be reelected. 

Quinnipiac, based in Connecticut, surveyed 1,301 Ohio registered voters by phone, reaching them by land lines and cell phones. 

Neither Romney nor Perry has campaigned in Ohio. Neither regularly makes front-page news in Ohio. But with a presidential primary little more than six months away, Ohio Republican voters for now favor Romney narrowly, 42-38 percent, according to the poll. 

“The Republican presidential race in Ohio at this point is shifting back and forth between former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and Texas Gov. Rick Perry,” Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, said in a news release accompanying the poll, released this morning. 

“Perry’s strength is among two large constituencies within the Republican coalition. In a two-man race, Perry defeats Romney 57 - 30 percent among Republicans who consider themselves part of the Tea Party movement. He leads Romney 48 - 33 percent among Republicans who are white, evangelical Christians.” 

The others still in the GOP nominating race? Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin gets 9 percent; businessman Herman Cain, 7 percent; Texas U.S. Rep. Ron Paul, 6 percent, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, 4 percent each, and Minnesota U.S. Rep. Michelle Bachmann, 3 percent. 

Because the Republican voters represent a smaller sample than all voters, the poll’s margin of error on primary questions was 4.8 percent. 

In an Ohio GOP primary for U.S. Senate, Mandel would best former state Sen. Kevin Coughlin, 33-12. The overwhelming majority of Republicans still are undecided, the poll shows. 

Most of the pre-primary political action in Ohio has been dedicated to raising money, and Mandel, with $2.3 million in his first quarter, demonstrated he could be competitive. His numbers have climbed since Quinnipiac began polling on this Senate race. In May, it looked like a 45-31 Brown-Mandel matchup. In July, it was 49-34. Now it is 49-36. 

Brown’s job approval ratings have risen, however, and now match the 52 percent he had in May 2009, according to Quinnipiac. 

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