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Election 2012: New Hampshire Republican Primary
New Hampshire GOP Primary: Romney 39%, Perry 18%, Paul 13%
Friday, September 23, 2011 

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney is the runaway leader in the race for the 2012 Republican nomination in New Hampshire, home of next year’s first presidential primary. 

Romney earns 39% of the vote in Rasmussen Reports’ first telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters in New Hampshire in the Election 2012 campaign season. Texas Governor Rick Perry is a distant second with 18% support, followed by Texas Congressman Ron Paul at 13%. The other announced GOP candidates are all in single digits. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and four percent (4%) more are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.) 

It’s important to note, however, that this survey was taken prior to last night’s Republican candidate debate in Orlando, Florida. 

Among the also-rans, former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman has risen to a surprising fourth place with seven percent (7%), closely followed by Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann who picks up five percent (5%) of the vote. Bachmann has largely ignored the Granite State, focusing her efforts on trying to land a big win in the Iowa Caucuses which come a week before the New Hampshire primary. 

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Georgia businessman Herman Cain each earn four percent (4%) support from likely primary voters in New Hampshire, while Rick Santorum, former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania, gets two percent (2%). 

In Rasmussen Reports’ most recent national survey of Likely Republican Primary voters, released earlier this week, the race for the presidential nomination is all about Perry and Romney, with no other candidate reaching double-digit support.  Perry captures 28% of the vote to Romney’s 24%. 

Romney has long been considered the favorite in the contest in New Hampshire because of its proximity to his home state of Massachusetts. 

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This statewide telephone survey of 750 Likely Republican Primary Voters in New Hampshire was conducted on September 21, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology. 

Romney leads even more decisively among female primary voters in New Hampshire with 44% support to Perry’s 18%.  He holds a two-to-one lead over the Texas governor – 35% to 18%- among male voters. 

Among Tea Party voters, the race is much narrower, with Romney posting a 30% to 26% lead over Perry. Non-members prefer Romney over Perry 45% to 14% 

Unaffiliated voters can vote in the state’s GOP Primary, and among those voters Romney earns 34% support with Paul in second place at 19%. Huntsman gets 15% support from unaffiliateds, followed by Perry at 12%. 

But just 34% of all likely GOP primary voters in the state are certain how they will vote at this time, and Romney leads Perry 43% to 17% among these voters. Paul also has 17% support within this group. 

Seventy-seven percent (77%) of likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire hold a favorable opinion of Romney, including 32% with a Very Favorable one. Only 21% view him unfavorably, with six percent (6%) Very Unfavorable. 

Perry is seen favorably by 61% and unfavorably by 33%. This includes 22% with a Very Favorable regard for him and 17% with a Very Unfavorable opinion. 

Fifty-one percent (51%) share a favorable opinion of Paul, while 44% view him unfavorably. These findings include 20% who see him Very Favorably and 18% with a Very Unfavorable view. 

Seventy-seven percent (77%) of GOP voters in the Granite State disapprove of the job President Obama is doing, with 66% who Strongly Disapprove. 

For the 11th week in a row, the president trails a generic Republican candidate in a hypothetical Election 2012 matchup.  Romney continues to be the named Republican hopeful who runs most competitively with the president and remains neck-and-neck with Obama in nationwide surveys. 

More than 80% of likely Republican Primary voters nationwide say Perry or Romney are likely to beat Obama in the general election, but they are less confident about Bachmann and Paul doing the same.