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What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls
Saturday, March 31, 2012 

The U.S. Supreme Court this past week held three days of hearings on the constitutionality of President Obama’s health care law, in particular the requirement that every American obtain health insurance. Most voters (63%) continue to believe the federal government does not have the authority to force people to buy health insurance, and 54% expect the Supreme Court to overturn the law. 

But as Scott Rasmussen explains in his new syndicated column, the health care law is doomed even if it survives the scrutiny of the high court. Detailing three ways the law could meet its end, Scott writes, “Nothing the court decides will keep the law alive for more than a brief period of time.” 

The continuing uproar over the shooting death of Florida teenager Trayvon Martin has dominated many news cycles in the past few days, but most Americans haven’t come to a conclusion yet whether it’s a case of murder or self-defense. One-third (33%) of adults believe crime watch volunteer George Zimmerman should be found guilty of Martin’s murder, while 15% think Zimmerman acted in self-defense. But 52% of Americans are not sure. 

Gasoline prices every day, meanwhile, are marching toward record highs.  A plurality (48%) of Americans thinks the federal government should eliminate the federal gas tax until gas prices come down. They definitely don’t think this is a time to hike the gas tax or tack on a mileage tax to fund transportation needs. 

Despite challenges by the Obama administration and environmental groups, most Americans (57%) favor use of the so-called “fracking” process to produce more domestic oil and natural gas. Fifty-nine percent (59%) believe it is at least somewhat likely that the development of shale oil reserves will end U.S. dependence on foreign oil. Opposition to the hydraulic “fracking” process for developing shale oil reserves is based primarily on environmental concerns, but Americans strongly believe these reserves can be developed without hurting the environment. 

The president caused a stir on Monday when he was overheard telling Russian President Dmitry Medvedev that he could cut a better deal on missile defense after his reelection. That’s part of the president’s stated strategy to reduce nuclear stockpiles. However, Americans still believe overwhelmingly that nuclear weapons are critical to the nation’s security, and 58% oppose reducing the size of the U.S. nuclear arsenal. But they fear a terrorist attack far more than a nuclear one from another nation. 

Still, voters tend to believe as they have since the killing of Osama bin Laden last May that the United States and its allies are winning the war on terror. 

Several states now are considering or have recently passed laws requiring women seeking an abortion to first see an ultrasound of their fetus. Oklahoma’s law was put on hold by a judge this past week. Voters nationwide are closely divided over laws that require pregnant women to view their fetus via ultrasound before they can get an abortion.  But voters overwhelmingly oppose allowing government to mandate medical procedures. 

Looking ahead, Republicans in Maryland and Wisconsin vote Tuesday in the next set of presidential primaries, and the day seems to be shaping up as a good one for Mitt Romney. 

The Republican front-runner is well ahead of his chief rival Rick Santorum in Maryland – 45% to 28%. Twelve percent (12%) favor former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, while Texas Congressman Ron Paul earns seven percent (7%) of the vote. 

The numbers have moved little over the past week with Romney still holding a double-digit lead over Santorum – 44% to 34% - in the closing days of the Wisconsin Republican Primary race. Gingrich and Paul both pick up seven percent (7%) of the vote from Badger State Republicans. 

The bad news for the GOP, though, is that the president is now above the 50% mark in hypothetical general election matchups with Romney and Santorum in Wisconsin. Obama carried Wisconsin over Republican John McCain with 56% of the vote, and 51% of the state’s voters now approve of his job performance. 

The race for Wisconsin’s open U.S. Senate seat between top Republican contender Tommy Thompson and Democratic Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin has grown tighter over the last month. Baldwin now leads two other Republican hopefuls in the race. 

Obama also has extended his lead over his top GOP challengers in the key battleground state of Ohio. He leads Romney 48% to 40% and Santorum 47% to 41%. 

Republican Josh Mandel, in the first Rasmussen Reports survey since his decisive primary victory, is now running neck-and-neck with Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown in Ohio’s U.S. Senate race. 

The president remains slightly ahead of Romney and Santorum in combined polling of the key swing states Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia. During 2008, Obama picked up 52% of the vote in these states to Republican nominee John McCain’s 48%. Combined, the Core Four have 75 Electoral College votes, and if the president is successful in all these states, it will be just about impossible for the GOP candidate to win the White House. 

Obama’s job approval ratings remain where they’ve been in recent weeks, and Romney is still the only Republican who runs competitively with the president among voters nationwide on a regular basis. 

As tempers flare and the language gets harsher in the race for the Republican nomination, a plurality (46%) of GOP voters continues to believe the primary process is a good way to select a nominee. But that’s down from 53% in early September before the battle began in earnest. 

The economy remains the key factor in the presidential race, and most Americans still believe the country is in a recession, according to the Rasmussen Consumer and Investor Indexes. 

A new report from a task force led by former Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice and former New York City School Chancellor Joel I. Klein warns that the country’s economic and national security is at further risk if the public schools do not improve. Adults nationwide overwhelmingly share this concern and give low marks to the performance of America’s public schools. Just 23% rate those schools good or excellent, while 37% say they’re doing a poor job. 

Perhaps even more disturbing, given the high national unemployment rate, is the belief by 65% of Americans that most high school graduates lack the skills needed for college or a job. 

One obvious drag on the economy is the historic and growing federal budget deficit. Scott Rasmussen argues in his new book, The People’s Money: How the American People Will Balance the Budget and Eliminate the Federal Debt, that voters are ready to support the kind of long-term thoughtful changes needed to balance the budget and eliminate the federal debt. The only thing standing in the way is a Political Class committed to defending the status quo. The Washington Post said of the book earlier this month that it makes “a persuasive case that voters have far more power and influence than they’re given credit for.” 

Republicans hold a five-point lead over Democrats on the latest Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending Sunday, March 25. 

Read the rest of this article with links at Rasmussen