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Rasmussen...
What They Told
Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls
Saturday, April 07, 2012
The Easter weekend comes as a welcome pause for many after a week of
high-profile political debate over the role of the U.S. Supreme Court
and the release of employment numbers that remind us the economy’s
still in shaky condition.
After reaching a three-year high in February, the Rasmussen Employment
Index slipped four points in March. Generally speaking, a decrease in
the index suggests the upcoming government reports on job creation will
be weaker than the prior month’s, and that was again the case this
month. The number of Americans who know someone who’s given up looking
for a job out of frustration is up five points from a month ago to
48%.
The Rasmussen Consumer and Investor Indexes ended the week with slight
increases, and both are running 10 or more points ahead of where they
were in January. However, it remains to be seen how the jobs’ report
affects confidence in the coming days.
Twenty-nine percent (29%) of Likely U.S. Voters say the country is
heading in the right direction, down five points from a recent high of
34% measured in early February. Sixty-four percent (64%) think the
country is heading down the wrong track.
At the beginning of the week, one-third of Americans still had not
filed their income taxes with the April 17 deadline looming.
Seventy-five percent (75%) of those who had not filed their taxes
expected to do so by the deadline. Thirteen percent (13%) planned to
get an extension, and another 13% weren’t sure what they would do.
Americans remain unhappy with the tax system in this country and
believe more strongly than ever that others do not pay their fair
share. Fifty percent (50%) now believe a person who earns twice as much
as they do pays less than twice as much in taxes. But it’s not just
when they look up the income scale that people see a disparity.
Forty-eight percent (48%) believe that someone who earns half as much
as they do pays less than half as much in taxes.
As they square up their incomes taxes for another year, a majority of
adults nationwide continues to believe that those who work for the
government have it easier than those in the private sector and get paid
more for it.
Voters trust Republicans more than Democrats as they have for three
years now when it comes to handling the economy, by far the top issue
of a list of 10 regularly tracked by Rasmussen Reports. They put
slightly more trust in Democrats on health care, the second most
important issue.
Following a week of highly-publicized hearings before the U.S. Supreme
Court on the constitutionality of President Obama’s health care law,
most voters continue to favor repeal of the law, and more than ever
think it’s likely to be repealed.
The president, however, cautioned the Supreme Court this past week
about overturning his health care law, prompting a spirited debate over
the constitutional separation of powers. Just 15% of voters think the
high court puts too many limitations on what the federal government can
do, while twice as many (30%) believe the Supreme Court does not limit
the government enough. Forty percent (40%) say the balance is about
right. Thirty-nine percent (39%) trust the Supreme Court more than the
other two major branches of the federal government – the presidency and
Congress. Thirty percent (30%) trust the president more, while only 12%
put more faith in the Congress.
The latter finding is no surprise with positive ratings for Congress’
job performance back in single digits where they have been for the past
year. Republicans continue to hold a small lead over Democrats on the
latest Generic Congressional Ballot.
In March, 26% of voters Strongly Approved of the president’s job
performance, while 41% Strongly Disapproved. This gave the president a
full-month job approval rating of -15, down two points from last month
and back to the level measured in January. Obama enjoyed a
positive index of 23 when he first assumed office in January 2009.
As Mitt Romney assumes the role of presumptive Republican nominee,
polls suggest a competitive general election matchup between the former
Massachusetts governor and the president. But the data also suggest
that voters are less than thrilled with the choices they’ll have in
November because, as Scott Rasmussen argues in his new syndicated
column, neither candidate is connecting with voters’ real concerns.
What are those concerns, and what are the voter-tested solutions? Scott
goes into detail in his new book, The People’s Money: How the American
People Will Balance the Budget and Eliminate the Federal Debt He
contends that voters are ready to support the kind of long-term
thoughtful changes needed to balance the budget and eliminate the
federal debt. The only thing standing in the way is a Political Class
committed to defending the status quo. The Washington Post said of the
book last month that it makes “a persuasive case that voters have far
more power and influence than they’re given credit for.”
Since just months after his inauguration, voters have consistently felt
more strongly that the president is governing like a partisan Democrat
than in a bipartisan manner. Now, 53% feel that way, the highest
finding since early December 2010.
Speaking of politics, the president holds identical three-point leads
over Romney and Rick Santorum in combined polling of the key swing
states of Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia. During
2008, Obama picked up 52% of the vote in these states to Republican
nominee John McCain’s 48%. Combined, the Core Four have 75 Electoral
College votes, and if the president is successful in all these states,
it will be just about impossible for the GOP candidate to win the White
House.
Romney and Santorum continue to lead the president in hypothetical
Election 2012 matchups in Montana, a state last won by a Democratic
presidential candidate 20 years ago.
Republican Congressman Denny Rehberg still maintains a very narrow
advantage over Democratic incumbent Jon Tester in Montana’s closely
contested U.S. Senate race.
The U.S. Senate race in New Mexico remains tight between former
Republican Congresswoman Heather Wilson and two potential Democratic
opponents.
Following his sweep of the Maryland, Wisconsin and District of Columbia
primaries this past Tuesday, Romney is well ahead in delegates, and
many think the battle for the Republican presidential nomination is
over. But Santorum is making a stand in his home state where he holds a
four-point lead over Romney – 42% to 38% - in Rasmussen Reports’ first
look at the upcoming Pennsylvania Republican primary. Pennsylvania
Republicans vote on April 24.
Romney is now seen as the leader of the Republican Party, and no one
else is even close as far as voters nationwide are concerned. Rasmussen
Reports gave Likely U.S. Voters the names of eight well-known
Republicans, including the four finalists for the party’s presidential
nomination, and asked which was the leader of the GOP. Twenty-six
percent (26%) said Romney, with House Speaker John Boehner second at
13%.
Voters continue to have a slightly more favorable opinion of the Tea
Party compared to the Occupy Wall Street protesters. But Republicans
are the only ones who see either of the groups as much of a political
benefit in the upcoming elections. Most Republicans (53%) continue to
think the Tea Party will help their party in November. Just 32% of
Democrats believe the Occupy movement will help them in those elections.
The number of Democrats in the United States rebounded in March after
falling to a record low in February. However, for the fourth
consecutive month, more people consider themselves Republicans than
Democrats.
Read this with links at Rasmussen
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