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What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls
Saturday, March 10, 2012 

Following Super Tuesday, the perception is growing that Mitt Romney will be the Republican presidential nominee. By week’s end, Romney had moved ahead of the president in head-to-head polling. 

In Alabama, the GOP Primary race is essentially a three-way tie, while Romney leads by eight in Mississippi.  Nationally, Romney now leads Rick Santorum by 12 points.  Regardless of who they want to win, 80% of Republican Primary Voters believe Romney will be the party’s nominee. 

Romney leads Obama by five points in a hypothetical 2012 matchup. Saturday’s numbers show Romney at 48%, Obama at 43%. That’s Romney’s largest lead since December and it comes at a time when the president’s job approval has been slipping a bit. Matchup results and the president’s Job Approval ratings are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update). 

This is taking place as the economy remains far and away the most important thing on voters’ minds this election season.  Eighty-two percent (82%) of Likely U.S. Voters see the economy as a Very Important issue in terms of how they will vote in the next election. Nothing else comes close. 

The Rasmussen Employment Index, which measures workers’ perceptions of the labor market, jumped seven points in February to its highest level since September 2008. Twenty-three percent (23%) of working Americans in February reported that their firms are hiring. Twenty percent (20%) said their firms are laying off workers. Those, too, are the most positive figures since September 2008. 

An increasing number of working Americans also expect to earn more money a year from now.  More  Americans are also searching for work outside of their current company. 

At the same time, the Rasmussen Consumer and Investor Indexes, which measure the daily confidence of both groups, jumped at week’s end and are well ahead of where they were three months ago. 

Thirty percent (30%) of voters say the country is heading in the right direction. While down two points from a week ago and four points from three weeks ago, the current level of optimism is higher than it was for just about all of 2011.  During 2011, the number saying the country was heading in the right direction reached a low of 14%. 

More Americans than ever expect one of the financially troubled European countries to default on its debt in the near future, but only 13% believe the United States should step up its efforts to help the situation.  Looking overseas at the catastrophic economic problems plaguing Greece and other European nations, a sizable number (42%) of Americans continue to think the United States is also a candidate for default in the near future.  But that’s less pessimistic than last fall when 48% saw default as at least somewhat likely. 

When it comes to the nation’s debt, politicians in Washington continue to blame the voters for allegedly wanting more government than they are willing to pay for. “The effort of politicians to pin the blame on voters,” Scott Rasmussen argues in his new syndicated column, “diverts attention from the real entitlement mentality that threatens to bankrupt the nation: A political class that feels entitled to rule over the rest of us.” 

As Scott explains in his new book, The People’s Money: How the American People Will Balance the Budget and Eliminate the Federal Debt , voters are ready to support the kind of long-term thoughtful changes needed to balance the budget and eliminate the federal debt. The only thing standing in the way of a solution is the nation’s political leaders from both parties. 

By the way, we’re happy to report that “The People’s Money” hit #1 on the BarnesandNoble.com bestseller list last week and is currently holding in second. Earlier in the week, Scott’s book reached #1 in the politics and economics categories on Amazon.com. 

Perceptions of the president’s leadership have weakened again since his State of the Union address in January.  Forty-two percent (42%) of Likely U.S. Voters now rate Obama’s leadership as good or excellent, but that’s down from 48% in January, his highest positives since September 2009. Nearly as many (40%) now view him as a poor leader. 

While Congress continues to battle over the president’s contraceptive mandate and its implications for religious freedom, most voters (53%) still favor repeal of his landmark legislative achievement, the national health care law. 

By the same token, voters are less convinced that Obama will be succeeded by a Republican. Fifty-seven percent (57%) still think it is at least somewhat likely that the next president after Obama will be a Republican, but that’s the first time this finding has fallen out of the 60s since December 2009.  That belief ran as high as 71% in December 2010. 

While Romney may be winning the Republican race, he appears to be making himself a little less popular nationally in the process. A plurality (43%) of voters think it would be better for the GOP if a new candidate jumped in the race, but most Republicans (53%) don’t agree. 

Still, it’s a neck-and-neck race between Romney and the president when it comes to voter trust on several major issues including the economy. 

The president now holds modest leads over Romney and Santorum in combined polling of key swing states Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia. The numbers mark a shift from late February when Obama was tied with both candidates in the so-called Core Four states.  During 2008, Obama picked up 52% of the vote in these states to Republican nominee John McCain’s 48%. If Obama carries these four states again, it will be almost impossible for the Republican to beat him. 

Republicans still hold a modest lead over Democrats on the latest Generic Congressional Ballot.  But House Speaker John Boehner is less liked than ever. Fortunately for the GOP, voters still reserve their lowest opinions for Democratic congressional leaders Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid. 

Paid your taxes yet? Most voters still say America is overtaxed, and half think any federal tax increase should be submitted to the public for a vote. 

Read this story with links at Rasmussen