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What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls
Saturday, March 24, 2012 

Friday marked the two-year anniversary of President Obama’s national health care law, and Republicans, unable to push repeal through the Democratic-controlled Senate, are now looking to the U.S. Supreme Court for relief. The high court will hold hearings this coming week on a multi-state challenge of the law’s constitutionality. 

Most voters continue to favor repeal of the law as they have consistently since its passage in 2010.   Public opinion has been remarkably stable on the law stretching back to late 2009. 

Still, with most of the law’s provisions not scheduled to go into effect until 2014, 57% say the law has had no direct impact on their lives so far. Thirteen percent (13%) say they personally have been helped by the law to date, while twice as many (26%) say they have been hurt by it. 

Most voters also still worry that the health care law will cause some companies to drop employee health care coverage and think it would be bad if those employees were forced into a government insurance plan instead. There is a striking partisan difference on what that would mean for employees. Republicans and unaffiliated voters overwhelmingly believe it would be bad for workers to be dropped from employer coverage and enrolled in a government-sponsored health insurance plan. However, a solid plurality of Democrats believe the change to a government plan would leave workers better off. 

Republicans and the majority of voters not affiliated with either of the major parties consider cost to be the biggest problem with health care today. Most Democrats, on the other hand, view the lack of universal health insurance coverage as the bigger problem. It’s the law’s requirement that everyone have health insurance that is being challenged as unconstitutional. (Most voters, by the way, don’t think the government has the power to mandate universal coverage.) 

But health care isn’t the only hot potato on the Supreme Court’s docket this year. It also will be reviewing U.S. Justice Department challenges of laws passed by Arizona and Alabama to crack down on illegal immigration. The feds say the laws infringe on their powers; the states say the federal government isn’t doing its job. 

Most voters continue to believe the policies of the federal government encourage illegal immigration, but fewer voters than ever think it’s a good idea to put the U.S. military along the border to stop the flow of illegals into this country. A sizable majority (64%) of voters remain confident that the United States is generally a fair and decent place, but the number who think the president disagrees with them is at its highest level since late 2010. 

Even before the health care and immigration cases proceed publicly, just 28% of voters give the Supreme Court good or excellent ratings. Those are the lowest ratings for the Court since Rasmussen Reports began asking the question in 2004. Nineteen percent (19%) rate the highest court in the land as poor 

The Supreme Court review of the health care law isn’t the only Obama policy being challenged. Despite the president moving up the troop withdrawal date in Afghanistan to next year, most voters (53%) favor the immediate withdrawal of all U.S. troops in Afghanistan after the violence surrounding a Koran-burning incident and the massacre of 17 Afghani civilians by a U.S. soldier. 

The Republicans who hope to take Obama’s place have troubles of their own, though. The next hurdle is today’s GOP primary in Louisiana, and former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum was comfortably ahead at midweek. Looking down the road a bit, Romney holds a double-digit lead over Santorum in Wisconsin. 

Romney-Santorum? Romney-Gingrich? Romney-Paul? Not so fast, voters say when asked about a potential Republican ticket for this fall’s election. Just 22% of Likely Voters believe the eventual Republican nominee should pick one of the other three remaining candidates as his vice presidential running mate.

The president now holds modest leads over both Romney and Santorum in combined polling of the key swing states Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia. Obama picked up 52% of the vote in these states to Republican nominee John McCain’s 48% in the 2008 elections. Combined, the Core Four have 75 Electoral College votes, and if the president is successful in these states, it will be just about impossible for the GOP candidate to win the White House. 

Looking closer at just Virginia, the president now clears the 50% mark in support against his top two potential Republican challengers in the key battleground state. The U.S. Senate race in Virginia, however, remains a toss-up, with Republican George Allen ahead of Democrat Tim Kaine by just two points. 

Obama is ahead of Santorum by 16 points and leads Romney by six points in hypothetical Election 2012 matchups in Nevada. But incumbent Republican Dean Heller holds a seven-point lead over his likeliest Democratic challenger, Congresswoman Shelley Berkley, in Rasmussen Reports’ first look at the U.S. Senate race in that state. 

Both Romney and Santorum post nine-point leads over the president in another key electoral state, Missouri. 

There’s a lot of talk of tax reform on the campaign trail this year, and recent surveying indicates the voters are more willing to raise taxes on the rich. But Scott Rasmussen explains in his latest syndicated column that “a graduated income tax … seems fair to most voters, not to soak the rich but to make sure that all Americans are treated equally.” 

This and other voter-driven solutions are the heart of Scott’s new book, The People’s Money: How the American People Will Balance the Budget and Eliminate the Federal Debt .  Voters are ready to support the kind of long-term thoughtful changes needed to balance the budget and eliminate the federal debt, he argues. The only thing standing in the way of a solution is a Political Class committed to defending the status quo. The Washington Post lists THE PEOPLE’S MONEY as the nation’s number one best-selling political book.  

The Wall Street Journal notes that Rasmussen’s book challenges “one of the biggest memes in political science.” While many in the political world argue that “voters aren’t smart enough to vote as academics presume that they should,” Rasmussen disagrees. He thinks that “voters, not policy wonks, are the ones best-suited to shrink the deficit.” 

Right now, the president’s job approval ratings suggest that voters are slightly happier with the way things are going. The Rasmussen Consumer Index on Friday matched its highest finding for the year, while the Rasmussen Investor Index rose to its highest level since January 2008. The indexes measure daily confidence among both groups. 

But troubling signs remain. Confidence among homeowners in housing values has stalled after several months of gains. Fifty percent (50%) of homeowners now say their home is worth more than what they still owe on their mortgage. 

Most Americans agree now is not the best time to sell a home, but they feel stronger than ever that those struggling to pay their mortgage should sell their home and buy a cheaper one rather than receive help from the government.  Just 19% believe the government should assist those struggling homeowners in making their mortgage payments. 

Voters remain overwhelmingly concerned about inflation and expect to pay more at the grocery store, but they have more confidence than ever that the Federal Reserve Board can keep inflation under control.

Republicans are still slightly ahead of Democrats on the latest Generic Congressional Ballot. 

Read the rest of this article with links at Rasmussen