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Economy:
Blue States Worse Than Red Under Obama
By John
Merline, Investor’s Business Daily
May 10, 2012
Barack
Obama entered the national spotlight with a rousing 2004 Democratic
convention
speech that talked about how it was wrong “to slice and dice our
country into
red states and blue states.” Last week he reiterated the point in a
tweet to
his Twitter followers, saying that “there are no red states or blue
states,
just the United States.”
But when it
comes to the economic recovery, there has been a clear difference. It
turns out
that blue states have done worse economically than have red states
under
President Obama, according to an IBD analysis of various government
economic
data.
IBD
compared average job growth, unemployment, changes in housing prices,
per
capita income and GDP growth, and gas prices for the 22 states that
voted for
John McCain in 2008 and the 28 states that voted for Obama .
On every
indicator but one, blue states have done worse, on average, than red
states.
In
addition, IBD looked at the economic performance of 11 states that Real
Clear
Politics lists as tossups for the 2012 presidential election. Many of
these
purple battleground states have fared far worse than the country as a
whole
during the past three years.
Among the
findings:
Job growth:
The average increase for blue states was just 1.2% from June 2009 — the
official start of the economic recovery — to March 2012. For red
states, it was
1.9%. The national average was 1.8%, according to the Bureau of Labor
Statistics.
Unemployment:
The jobless rate in March was 8.5% in blue states and 7.4% in red
states, BLS
data show.
Income:
Blue states also did a bit worse when it came to per cap ita personal
pay,
rising 4.27% in 2011 compared with 4.35% in red states, according to
the Bureau
of Economic Analysis data
GDP: The
one measure where blue states outperformed was in gross domestic
product
growth, clocking an average 2.5% increase from 2009 to 2010 vs. red
states’
2.2%. State GDP figures for 2011 won’t come out until June.
Home
prices: People living in liberal areas suffered the most when it came
to
housing prices. Over the past year, the housing price index fell 3.5%
in blue
states. The index edged up by 0.03% in conservative states. Nationwide,
it was
down 2.4%, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s House
Price Index.
Over the past five years, housing prices in red states fell 7.5%, but
by 18.5%
in blue states.
Gas prices:
Blue states also suffer when it comes to gasoline. All but one of the
10 most
expensive gas states voted for Obama in 2008. In contrast, all but one
of the
10 cheapest gas states voted for McCain, according to gasoline price
data from
the AAA’s fuel gauge report. On average, blue state prices were 5%
higher than
those in red states.
What
explains these different economic outcomes?
One
possibility is that red states tend to be more business-friendly.
George Mason
University’s Mercatus Center recently. “But in swing states, it’s a
different
story. Republicans may be able to make some hay out of economic
distress in
swing states that Obama carried in 2008, such as Florida and Nevada.”
Sabato did
note that Virginia is doing well “and the Obama White House and
campaign should
be able to use the good news to their benefit in November.”
There’s
also the question of how the faster growth in red states, if it
continues,
could affect the election. One possibility is that their economic speed
could
boost the nation’s overall mood and wind up helping Obama’s re-election
chances.
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