Rasmussen...
What
They
Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls
Saturday,
May 19, 2012
Unlike four
years ago, Barack Obama now has a record to run on – and run against.
The
economy, the health care law, bailouts, stimulus spending, the changes
from the
so-called Arab Spring and much more will be hot topics of discussion in
the
months ahead.
Right now,
Republican challenger Mitt Romney and the president are closely matched
in the
daily Presidential Tracking Poll, but improving economic perceptions
would
cheer the Obama camp. “Forget same-sex marriage and the host of other
buzz
issues,” Scott Rasmussen argues in his latest syndicated column. “If the economy
improves, Obama will be
reelected. If it gets worse, he will lose.”
Democrats regard
North Carolina as so important to the president’s reelection that they
are
holding their national convention there this summer. However, Romney
has moved
out to an eight-point lead over Obama in the Tar Heel State. More predictably, Romney
still posts a
double-digit lead over the president in GOP-friendly Nebraska.
Voters now
trust Romney more than the president on the economy and all five major
issues
regularly tracked by Rasmussen Reports. Yet while voters trust Romney’s
economic judgment more, they continue to have a lot more confidence in
themselves than in either presidential contender when it comes to the
economic
issues facing the nation.
After all,
just 28% now think the country is heading in the right direction.
Sixty-five
percent (65%) continue to believe the country is heading down the wrong
track.
The
government’s a big reason for the problems as far as many are
concerned.
Americans remain overwhelmingly concerned about inflation, for example,
and say
they are paying more for groceries than they were a year ago. So it’s no surprise that
they continue to
lack confidence in the Federal Reserve Board’s ability to keep
inflation down.
Meanwhile,
the majority of voters still supports repeal of the president’s
national health
care law, and belief that repeal would be good for the economy has
edged up to
its highest level since late 2010.
For years,
most have believed that reduced government spending in general is good
for the
economy. Now, 57% of voters favor a law that would limit government
spending so
it could grow only enough to cover population growth and inflation.
Spending
growth has exceeded that level every year but one since 1965.
At the same
time, voters are looking more favorably on the bailouts of Big Three
automakers
General Motors and Chrysler.
Forty-seven percent (47%) believe the
auto industry bailouts were good
for America, the highest level measured since they were approved in
2008 and
2009. Nearly as many (43%), however, still see the auto bailouts as bad
for the
country. Most voters continue to have a sour view of the bailouts of
the U.S.
financial sector.
Despite
those bailouts, only 50% of Americans now are at least somewhat
confident in
the stability of the U.S. banking system. Forty-seven percent (47%) are
not. While
confidence is at its highest level in over a year, it’s important to
note that
in July 2008 just before the Wall Street meltdown, 68% were confident
in the
banking system, and only 28% were not.
Wall Street
banks are once again drawing national criticism due to JPMorgan Chase’s
$2
billion loss from high-risk trades. Yet while Americans believe the
federal
government is doing a poor job keeping an eye on the banking industry,
most
still aren’t convinced more regulations are needed.
No more
bailouts either: Americans feel more strongly than ever that no bank is
“too
big to fail.” Seventy-one percent (71%) say the government should let
troubled
banks, even ones as big as JPMorgan Chase, go out of business rather
than find
a way to keep them going. That’s up 15 points from 56% in July 2010.
Voters say
“leave the taxpayer out of it,” Scott Rasmussen explains in a new radio
update.
If JPMorgan Chase loses big money, shareholders should suffer;
executives
should lose bonuses and, in some cases, their jobs as far as voters are
concerned. But it’s not the taxpayer’s problem. [Scott is now doing
three
Rasmussen Report radio updates every weekday, syndicated nationally by
the WOR
Radio Network. Check out this week’s radio updates here.]
Of course,
there’s a wide difference of opinion between the Political Class which
thinks
the bailouts were great and Mainstream voters who disagree. The divide
between
voters and the Political Class is the central theme of
Scott’s New York Times bestselling book,
The
People’s Money: How the American People Will Balance the Budget and
Eliminate
the Federal Debt . He
contends that
voters are ready to support the kind of long-term thoughtful changes
needed to
balance the budget and eliminate the federal debt. The only thing
standing in
the way is a Political Class committed to defending the status quo.
As for the
bailout money handed out already, most Americans think Wall Street
benefited
more than the average taxpayer. More Americans than ever (71%) also
feel the
government has not done enough to hunt down potential criminal activity
on Wall
Street.
On the
personal finances front, more Americans than ever (40%) now say they’re
less in
debt than they were this time last year.
The housing
market continues to struggle. Homeowner sentiments about the future of
their homes’
values remained fairly steady this month at pretty dismal levels. Just
20%
believe their home will go up in value this year while 24% expect a
decline.
Longer term, only 47% believe their home will increase in value over
the next
five years.
Confidence
as measured by the Rasmussen Consumer and Investor Indexes was up at
week’s
end. While 37% of consumers believe the economy is getting better these
days,
46% still think it is getting worse. Among investors, 39% believe the
economy
is getting better, but 44% disagree and say it is getting worse.
Looking
overseas, most voters don’t expect the new governments emerging from
the Arab
Spring to become peaceful and democratic any time soon. Sixty-three
percent
(63%) believe there is a conflict in the world today between Western
civilization and Islamic nations, but most also think the United States
should
leave the Islamic world alone.
Republicans
hold a seven-point lead on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the
week ending
Sunday, May 12. The GOP has led on the ballot every week but one since
June
2009.
In one of
this year’s marquee contests, State Senator Deb Fischer holds an
18-point lead
over Democrat Bob Kerrey – 56% to 38% - in the first Rasmussen Reports
survey
of the Nebraska U.S. Senate race since her upset win in this week’s
state
Republican primary.
Read the
rest of the surveys with links at Rasmussen
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