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Rasmussen
What They Told
Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls
Saturday, November 24, 2012
41% Say U.S. Heading in Right Direction
Generic Congressional Ballot: Democrats 45%, Republicans 40%
56% Believe U.S. is in a Recession
Americans have a grimmer view of the economy since President Obama was
elected, although it hasn’t made a dent in their holiday shopping. Many
seem more accepting, too, of higher taxes in the future.
Fifty percent (50%) of American Adults now believe the economy will be
weaker in a year's time. That's a 27-point jump from October and the
lowest finding since September of last year. Thirty-six percent (36%)
predict the economy will be weaker five years from now, the highest
level of pessimism in nearly four years.
The increase in pessimism comes from Republicans and those not
affiliated with either major political party. Just before President
Obama was reelected, Republicans were evenly divided as to whether the
economy would be better or worse a year from now. Today, only 11% of
Republicans believe the economy will be stronger in a year. An
overwhelming 74% in the GOP believe it will be worse.
Among the unaffiliated, the number expecting it to be weaker jumped
from 19% before President Obama’s victory to 50% today. For Democrats,
the election did little to change their views—just over 6 out of 10
expect the economy to be stronger in a year. That was true both before
and after the election.
While short-term confidence in the housing market remains unchanged,
long-term confidence is at its lowest level in a year of monthly
tracking. One-in-four homeowners (25%) now believe the value of their
home will go down over the next five years. That's up from 12% in
October and the highest level of pessimism in over a year.
At week’s end, the Rasmussen Consumer and Indexes, which measure
confidence in both groups on a daily basis, were down several points
from a month ago. Fifty-six percent (56%) of consumers and 54% of
investors believe the United States is currently in an economic
recession.
Noting that most Republicans today believe their party’s leaders are
out of touch with the base, Scott Rasmussen in his latest weekly
newspaper column argues that the GOP needs to re-embrace the message of
Ronald Reagan. “The Republican establishment grumbles about makers
versus takers,” he writes. “Reagan looked at low-income Americans and
saw people who wanted an opportunity to work hard and get ahead. He saw
a nation that was happy to extend a helping hand to all who were
willing to work. For Republicans to win again (nationally), they will
have to respect the people they want to represent.”
A cause of concern for many is the so-called “fiscal cliff” of big tax
hikes and automatic spending cuts due on January 1. Congress and the
president are expected to resume negotiations this coming week to avoid
that outcome.
Sixty-eight percent (68%) of voters nationwide favor a mix of tax hikes
and spending cuts to help reduce the federal budget deficit.
Significantly, 52% of Republican voters agree with an approach that
includes both tax hikes and spending cuts.
Still, by a two-to-one margin (55% to 27%), voters regardless of party
affiliation would like to see more spending cuts than tax hikes.
But voters remain dubious that Congress and the president will actually
cut the spending they promise to cut. Even if a long-term deal leads to
real spending cuts, just 42% would be personally willing to pay “a bit
more” in taxes to balance the budget if needed. An equal number (42%)
are not willing to pay more even if they were assured that the spending
cuts were real.
Speaking of taxes, 32% of voters now think raising taxes is the best
way to make sure Medicare has enough money to cover all promised
benefits. Slightly more (34%) believe the best option is raising the
eligibility age for future generations. Ten percent (10%) support
cutting the promised level of benefits, but 25% are not sure which is
the best option.
Despite the concern about higher taxes and the state of the economy,
Americans plan to be a little less tight with their money this
gift-giving season. Fifty-six percent (56%) still say they will spend
less on gifts than they did last year. But that's down from 62%
this time last year. Only 13% plan to spend more on gifts, but that’s
up from a year ago. Thirty-one percent (31%) will spend about the same
amount, an eight-point increase from this time last year.
The holiday shopping season keeps starting earlier and earlier. This
year, 11% of Americans had finished the gift-buying before Black
Friday. That’s up from seven percent (7%) who finished shopping early a
year ago.
Taxes, the economy and the holiday shopping season will all be hot
topics on this weekend’s edition of What America Thinks, Scott
Rasmussen’s new television program seen in over 60 markets nationwide.
Forty-one percent (41%) of voters now think the country is heading in
the right direction, just short of the highest level of optimism during
the Obama presidency. That’s up 17 points from the beginning of the
year and up 24 points from a year ago.
Democrats now lead Republicans by five points – 45% to 40% - on the
Generic Congressional Ballot. This is the fourth time the Democrats
have led on the generic ballot in the past six weeks and the largest
lead they have held since early 2009.
As Congress enters a lame duck session, voters view the Democratic
congressional agenda as more mainstream than the Republican one.
Voters also now consider Democrats in Congress more bipartisan than
they have in several years and congressional Republicans as less so.
However, most think both parties continue to behave in a partisan
manner.
All four of the top congressional leaders from both parties – John
Boehner, Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid and Mitch McConnell - are back and
remain just as unpopular as they were before Election Day. The same
goes for Vice President Joe Biden.
Read the rest of the article at Rasmussen
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