Rasmussen
What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls
Saturday, October 27, 2012 

37% Say U.S. Heading in Right Direction
Generic Congressional Ballot: Republican 44%, Democrats 43%
Senate Balance of Power: Dems 48 GOP 45 Toss-Ups 7
59% Say U.S. Currently In A Recession 

So where do we stand with Election Day a week-and-a-half away? 

The Rasmussen Reports Electoral College projections show President Obama with 237 Electoral Votes and Mitt Romney with 206. The magic number needed to win the White House is 270. Eight states with 95 Electoral College votes remain Toss-ups: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin. 

New polling from Florida and Virginia shows Romney with a two-point advantage in both states. Romney’s also ahead by two in New Hampshire and up by four in Colorado.  The president leads by two in Nevada.  The candidates are tied in Iowa, Ohio and Wisconsin. 

In Election 2000, Florida was the decisive state in the Electoral College. In 2004, Ohio was the ultimate battleground state that put George W. Bush over the top. Scott Rasmussen suggests in his latest weekly newspaper column that Wisconsin May Be the New Ohio this year.  “On election night,” he writes, “the first places to watch will be Virginia and Florida. If Romney wins there, watch Ohio. If the president wins Ohio, Wisconsin is likely to be the decisive battleground state of Election 2012.” 

In other states surveyed this past week, Obama leads by five in Minnesota and Pennsylvania and is up by seven in Connecticut. Romney’s ahead by eight in Arizona and 14 in North Dakota. 

Nationally, in the daily Presidential Tracking Poll, Romney has been at the 50% level of support for five consecutive days.  He has enjoyed a three- or four-point edge on each of those days. The GOP challenger also has hit the 50% mark for five days in a row – and seven of the past eight days - in the daily Swing State Survey. 

Both of these surveys remain unchanged since Monday night’s final presidential debate. Romney went from slightly behind to slightly ahead following the first debate, and that dynamic hasn’t changed. Forty-nine percent (49%) of voters think Romney was the overall winner of the three debates.  Forty-one percent (41%) believe Obama was the victor. 

More voters than ever (47%) think the economy will get better if Romney is elected president.  Nearly as many (44%) expect the economy to get worse if Obama is reelected. 

Still, 51% of likely voters nationwide believe the president will win the election, compared to 39% who expect Mitt Romney to come out on top.  Confidence in Romney has been inching up and is now at its highest level in surveys since late August. The 12-point gap between the candidates is the narrowest yet, down from 20 points just two weeks ago. 

With the candidates focusing almost exclusively on the Toss-Up states with advertising and personal appearances and ignoring the voters in the vast majority of states, Scott Rasmussen asks in a new radio update whether it’s time to get rid of the Electoral College.  (Catch Scott’s radio updates Monday through Friday on stations across the country.) 

Most voters believe U.S. elections are fair, but they also still think the rules are rigged to help incumbent members of Congress. 

Speaking of members of Congress, the Rasmussen Reports Senate Balance of Power rankings now show Democrats on track to win 18 of the 33 Senate seats up for grabs and Republicans likely to win 10.  Five states – Connecticut, Montana, Pennsylvania (a surprise newcomer), Virginia and Wisconsin – are Toss-Ups. 

In other Senate races we surveyed this past week, Democrats are up by four points in Ohio, ahead by five in Florida and Massachusetts and out front by 15 in Washington State.  GOP candidates lead by six in Arizona and five in Nevada and North Dakota. 

Republicans have reclaimed the lead on the Generic Congressional Ballot, leading Democrats by one point for the week ending October 21. 

Eleven states are holding gubernatorial elections this November. In our latest surveys, Republicans are comfortably ahead in North Carolina and North Dakota. 

The election will be front-and-center in this weekend’s edition of What America Thinks, Scott Rasmussen’s new television program aired on over 60 stations nationwide.  Questions are growing about the Obama administration’s handling of the situation in Libya where the U.S. ambassador was killed last month, and Scott talks with Terra Lawson-Remer of the Council on Foreign Relations and former Obama homeland security adviser Michael Balboni about foreign policy and its impact on the 2012 election. Other guests will weigh in on the latest polling numbers out of the swing states. 

Read the rest of the article at Rasmussen