|
NBC News.com
This Cycle, a
Tale of Two Different Midterm Elections
By Chuck Todd, Mark Murray and Carrie Dann
How can the national polls look so bad for Democrats (see the
NBC/WSJ/Annenberg and Washington Post/ABC polls), but the competitive
Senate contests all be within the margin of error? Here’s an answer for
you: There are two different midterm environments taking place in the
country a week before Election Day. The first is the nationwide one,
where there does seem to be a wave building for Republicans and where
the GOP has a huge enthusiasm advantage. The second election, however,
is taking place in the top Senate and gubernatorial battlegrounds,
where Democrats have spent a tremendous amount of money building field
organizations and getting (as best they can) their side fired up. This
tale of two different midterm elections -- not too dissimilar from what
we saw in 2012 where the national and battleground polls didn’t match
up -- also helps explain why House Democrats are in trouble in states
not holding competitive races like in California, Minnesota and New
York (after all, embattled GOP Rep. Michael Grimm could very well win).
A wave is building up in these states. But it also explains why John
Barrow is running strong in Georgia (with its competitive SEN and GOV
races), why Staci Appel is still competitive in Iowa (see the
Braley-Ernst race), and why Gwen Graham could still very well win in
Florida (with the Crist-Scott race).
Why the Democrats’ outsourcing message against David Perdue is so
potent in Georgia
Chuck Todd’s “Meet the Voters” roadshow hits Georgia today, and here --
more than anything else -- is the reason why the outsourcing hits
against Republican David Perdue have been so potent, and why Democrat
Michelle Nunn could very well win this race, either on Nov. 4 or in the
January runoff. Did you know that Georgia has the HIGHEST UNEMPLOYMENT
rate in the country at 7.9%? That’s two full percentage points higher
than the national average at 5.9%. And check out this county-by-county
map of the unemployment rate -- it shows lots of Georgia counties with
double-digit unemployment rates. (This kind of economic situation was
deadly for Democrats back in 2010, but maybe less so now with the rest
of the country improving and with Georgia having a GOP governor.) If
Democrats are somehow able to win Georgia, that gives them an insurance
policy to lose either a Colorado or Iowa. They can’t lose both states.
But they could lose one of them if they win North Carolina, Georgia,
and Kansas (and get Greg Orman to caucus with them).
Why Kay Hagan is in better shape than Mark Pryor, Mary Landrieu, and
Mark Begich
Yesterday, Chuck Todd’s bus tour was in North Carolina, where it was
clear why Sen. Kay Hagan (D-NC) is in better shape than her fellow
vulnerable Dem colleagues. She’s been able to turn her race from a
referendum into a choice. While most of her Democratic colleagues have
spent their energy deflecting attacks about Obama, Hagan is hammering
away at Republican Thom Tillis on an issue that motivates a lot of
people in this state -- education. Voters are upset with state GOP
lawmakers, whom Democrats argue have hindered efforts to build the
infrastructure this fast-growing state needs to educate its children.
Tillis, as the speaker of the North Carolina House, is an obvious
target, and Hagan has been relentless at elevating local issues. For
every "You voted with Obama 96% of the time" attack, she's swinging
back on Raleigh's dysfunction. It's a get-out-the-vote message that's
proactive. But make no mistake, this is a tight race and Tillis can
definitely win it. But he might need a stronger national wind at his
back than a Joni Ernst or even Cory Gardner needs. Here are Chuck’s
other takeaways from North Carolina.
For the rest of this article and more, go to NBC News.com
|
|
|
|
