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Economic Impact
of Avian Influenza
Sam Custer
OSU Extension, Darke County
Since December 2014, the USDA has confirmed several cases of highly
pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5 in the Pacific, Central, and
Mississippi flyways (or migratory bird paths). The disease has been
found in wild birds, as well as in a few backyard and commercial
poultry flocks. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)
considers the risk to people from these HPAI H5 infections to be low.
No human cases of these HPAI H5 viruses have been detected in the
United States, Canada, or internationally.
168 Influenza findings have been reported since December, a majority of
which have been turkeys and most recently layers. The HPAI H5N2
virus strain has been confirmed in several states along three of the
four North American Flyways: Pacific, Central and Mississippi. The
latest findings can be found at http://go.osu.edu/AIupdate.
The novel HPAI H5N1 virus is not the same virus as the H5N1 virus found
in Asia, Europe and Africa that has caused some human illness. This
HPAI H5N1 strain is a new mixed-origin virus that combines the H5 genes
from the Asian HPAI H5N1 virus with N genes from native North American
avian influenza viruses found in wild birds.
Biosecurity is critical for all poultry producers including backyard
flocks. Consider a review of the recent news release from our
college
http://cfaes.osu.edu/news/articles/ohio-poultry-owners-advised-increase-biosecurity-virus-spreads-in-western-us.
Allison Sandve, University of Minnesota Extension, recently reported
losses in poultry production and related businesses due to avian
influenza are estimated at $309.9 million in Greater Minnesota,
according to a newly released emergency economic impact analysis from
University of Minnesota Extension.
Using economic modeling, analysts determined that for every million
dollars in direct losses, the estimated ripple effect leads to $1.8
million in overall economic losses, including $450,000 in wages. Ripple
effect losses stem from factors including reduced wage-earner and
business-to-business spending.
The Extension analysis put losses of poultry production--both turkeys
and egg-laying chickens--at $113 million as of May 11.
"These projections represent where we stand as of May 11," said Brigid
Tuck, Extension senior analyst, who led the study. "If the virus
affects more farms, as we have seen since May 11, the impact levels
will rise. If barns stay empty for another cycle of poultry production,
these numbers could potentially double"
Sandve’s full article can be found at
http://blog.lib.umn.edu/umnext/news/2015/05/extension-analysis-economic-impact-of-avian-flu-nears-310-million-as-of-mid-may.php.
Producers are no longer thinking about “if” this will hit Ohio, but
“when”. We hope the disease will miss us this spring but it has
been predicted that the level of risk will be high each fall and spring
for the next couple years as waterfowl migrate back and forth through
our state.
The value of poultry sales in Ohio from the last census is
$946,592,000. If we would experience a 50% loss of production in
Ohio, I would estimate a ripple effect would be 1 billion dollars in
overall economic losses, including $815,000 in wages.
No poultry on your farm - think about the effect on the demand for corn
and soybean meal. If we would lose ½ of our poultry for a 6 month
period of time you would reduce corn demand by 27,000,000 million
bushels, the equivalent of 9% of our state corn production and soybeans
would be about a 5,000,000 million bushel reduction.
For those with commercial poultry operations much planning and
execution is necessary at this time including advanced biosecurity and
disaster planning.
For more information about OSU Extension, Darke County, visit the Darke
County OSU Extension web site at www.darke.osu.edu, the OSU Extension
Darke County Facebook page or contact Sam Custer, at 937.548.5215.
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