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The times they are
a-changin’
By Jim Surber
06/25/11
Bob Dylan wrote this song about the changes in American society and
anyone old enough to remember the 1960’s can now appreciate its
insight. Technology, and how people use it, may now be laying the
groundwork for the elimination of many things that people have become
very used to.
I recently received predictions of nine things that will be gone in our
lifetime. I list them here because they represent very logical
reasoning. Whether these changes are for good or bad will depend upon
how we adapt to them. But, ready or not, here they come.
1. The Post Office. It’s not
hard to imagine a world without this service if you consider that it is
in deep financial trouble and there is probably no way to sustain it
long term. E-mail, Fed Ex, and UPS have just about wiped out the
minimum revenue needed to keep the post office alive, and most of what
you receive today is junk mail and bills.
2. Checks. Direct-deposit has
already replaced the traditional paycheck and pension, and it costs the
financial system billions of dollars each year to process checks.
Plastic cards and online transactions will lead to the eventual demise
of the check, and this plays right into the death of the post office.
If we all would pay our bills online and never receive them by mail,
the post office would absolutely go out of business.
3. Newspapers. The younger
generation simply doesn’t read newspapers and they certainly don’t
subscribe to a daily delivered print edition. As for reading the paper
online, get ready to pay for it. The rise in mobile Internet devices
and e-readers has prompted the newspaper and magazine publishers to
form an alliance. They have met with Apple, Amazon, and the major cell
phone companies to develop a model for paid subscription services.
4. Books. You may say you will
never give up the physical book that you hold in your hand and turn the
pages. Many said the same thing about downloading music from I-Tunes.
They wanted a hard copy CD, but quickly changed their minds when they
found they could get albums for half the price without ever leaving
home to get the latest music. The same thing will happen with books,
because you can browse a bookstore online and even read a preview
chapter before you buy; and the price is less than half that of a real
book. Then there is the convenience. Once you start flicking your
fingers on the screen instead of the book, you find that you are lost
in the story, can’t wait to see what happens next, and you forget that
you’re holding a gadget instead of a book.
5. Land-Line Telephones.
Unless you have a large family and make a lot of local calls, you don’t
need it anymore. Older people keep it simply because they’ve always had
it, but are paying double charges for that extra service. All the cell
phone companies will let you call customers using the same cell
provider for no charge against your minutes.
6. Recorded Music. This is one
of the saddest parts of the change story. The music industry is dying a
slow death, and not just because of illegal downloading. It’s because
innovative new music isn’t being given a chance to get to the people
who would like to hear it. The record labels and the radio
conglomerates are simply self-destructing. Over 40% of the music
purchased today is “catalog items,” meaning traditional music that the
public has heard for years, from older established artists. This is
also true on the live concert circuit.
7. Television. Revenues to the
networks are down dramatically, and not just because of the economy.
People are watching TV and movies streamed from their computers, and
they’re playing games and doing lots of other things that take up the
time that used to be spent watching TV. Prime time shows have
degenerated to lower than the lowest common denominator with cable
rates skyrocketing and commercials running about every 4 minutes and 30
seconds. Many would say good riddance to most of it, and it’s time for
the cable companies to be put out of our misery. Let the people choose
what they want to watch online and through Netflix.
8. “Things” That You Own. Many
of the possessions we used to own are still in our lives, but we may
not actually own them in the future. They may simply reside in “the
cloud.” Today your computer has a hard drive and you store your
pictures, music, movies, and documents. Your software is on a CD or
DVD, and you can always re-install it if needed. But all of that is
changing. Apple, Microsoft, and Google are all finishing up their
latest “cloud services.” That means that when you turn on a computer,
the Internet will be built into the operating system and Windows,
Google, and the Mac OS will be tied straight into the Internet. If you
click an icon, it will open something in the Internet cloud. If you
save something, it will be saved to the cloud. And you may pay a
monthly subscription fee to the cloud provider. In this virtual world,
you can access your music or your books, or your whatever from any
laptop or handheld device. That’s the good news. But, will you actually
own any of this “stuff” or will it all be able to disappear at any
moment in a big “poof?” Will most of the things in our lives be
disposable and whimsical? It makes you want to run to the closet and
pull out that photo album, grab a book from the shelf, or open up a CD
case and pull out the insert.
9. Privacy. If there ever was a concept that we can now look back on
nostalgically, it is our privacy. That’s gone, and it’s been gone for a
long time. There are cameras on the streets, in most of the buildings,
and even built into your computer and cell phone. You can be sure that
at all times, “They” know who you are and where you are, right down to
the GPS coordinates, and the Google Street View. When you buy
something, your habit is put into a million profiles, and ads sent to
you will change to reflect those habits. Finally, “They” will try to
get you to buy something else, again and again.
One thing is for sure: the sooner we can adapt, the less stressful our
existence will be. Even if all we will have left that can’t be changed
are memories.
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