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Education Dive
High school GPA 5 times more likely to predict college success than ACT scores
Shawna De La Rosa
Jan. 29, 2020
Dive Brief:
A study released this week and published in the journal Educational
Researcher shows high school grade point averages predict college
graduation rates five times more accurately than ACT scores. The study
examined 55,084 students who graduated from Chicago Public Schools
between 2006 and 2009 and immediately attended a four-year college.
The GPA correlation is consistent regardless of which school the
student attended, according to the study. Conversely, there was no
correlation between ACT score and college graduation rate at some
schools, and researchers also found in some schools that higher ACT
scores resulted in lower graduation rates.
The study shows each incremental increase in GPA improved the odds of
the high school student graduating from college. In a press release,
the researchers said the results of the study run contrary to the
assumption that standardized test scores are reliable, neutral
indicators of success and that the findings suggest grades are powerful
gauges in determining college readiness.
Dive Insight:
Though standardized tests are still the primary tool used by federal
and state governments to measure student achievement, the Every Student
Succeeds Act has embraced the use of a broader set of metrics to
measure student and school success. Colleges and universities,
likewise, are also increasingly embracing alternate metrics as
predictors of college success in enrollment decisions.
For example, Indiana University Bloomington will no longer use the SAT
or ACT as a general admission requirement, a move validating the
test-optional admissions movement that's gaining steam. Student
advocates have also sued the University of California System on the
grounds that relying on standardized test scores is discriminatory.
The University of North Carolina tested the test-optional theory by
allowing three of its schools to waive the SAT and ACT requirements in
the admission processes as long as students had strong GPAs. The
results of the pilot show that once in college, students with lower ACT
or SAT scores performed as well as their peers who earned ACT or SAT
scores that met schools' typical threshold.
The movement to do away with ACT/SAT scores still has a long way to go,
however. Despite the research and push by advocacy groups to eliminate
these requirements, most colleges and universities continue to use the
tests as a benchmark for admissions. Of 221 colleges surveyed in a
report by the National Association for College Admission Counseling,
45.7% considered the SAT/ACT scores of “considerable Importance,” while
only 5% said they were of “no importance.”
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