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Higher Ed Dive
Colleges enrolled nearly 500,000 fewer students this fall
Hallie Busta
Dec. 17, 2020
Dive Brief:
College enrollment fell 2.5% this fall from a year ago, almost twice
the rate of decline reported in 2019 and representing more than 460,000
students, according to final figures from the National Student
Clearinghouse Research Center released Thursday.
Undergraduate enrollment dropped 3.6% during the period — a difference
of more than 560,000 students. It was driven by double-digit decreases
at community colleges and among first-time students.
Graduate enrollment gains partially offset those declines, rising 3.6%
year-over-year, with the most significant increase at public four-year
schools.
Dive Insight:
The new data caps off a closely watched set of updates that gradually
filled in the fall 2020 enrollment picture as more colleges reported
their numbers to the Clearinghouse.
College officials expressed concern this spring that the switch to
online learning and the pandemic's economic pressures would lead to
decreased enrollment. The final data indicates the pandemic indeed had
a significant effect on how many students attended college this fall.
Although the Clearinghouse found that the pandemic didn't impact high
school graduation rates, 22% fewer recent graduates went right on to
college this fall than did a year ago, according to preliminary data.
In all, U.S. colleges enrolled 327,500 fewer first-time students this
fall, a 13.1% drop that the organization called "unprecedented."
Community colleges bore the brunt of those losses. Public two-year
colleges enrolled 544,200 fewer students overall this fall — a 10%
decrease and the biggest across all institution types.
Community college enrollment was shrinking by around 1% to 3% annually
over the last few years, as the U.S. unemployment rate dropped. So the
abrupt decrease this fall is indicative of the pandemic's effect, Doug
Shapiro, executive director of the research center, told reporters on a
call Wednesday.
Shapiro said this could be because early in the health crisis, people
thought the economy would bounce back, or that current conditions have
made it difficult to offer the hands-on training popular at two-year
schools. Some community college programs with the biggest enrollment
decreases this fall are in fields that may be difficult to teach
online, Shapiro noted (see table below).
The new data doesn't break out enrollment trends by students' race and
ethnicity, but earlier reports showed significant losses among Native
American and Black undergraduates. Additionally, low-income and
high-poverty high schools sent far fewer 2020 graduates to college this
fall.
Graduate student gains helped steady enrollment at public and private
nonprofit four-year colleges. The for-profit, four-year sector was the
only one to record undergraduate and graduate growth, though it
accounts for only about 4% of overall enrollment.
It's possible displaced workers will show up in college enrollment down the line. "We'll have to wait and see," Shapiro said.
2-year undergraduate programs with the biggest annual enrollment decreases
Program
Classification
Fall 2020 Fall 2019 Fall 2018
Precision
production
-18.4% 1.8% -0.6%
Physical
sciences
-17.3% -4.6% 5.3%
Personal and culinary
services
-17.2% -2.1% 9.1%
Communications technologies/technicians and support
services
-16.2% 2.6% 0.7%
Mechanic and repair
technologies/technicians
-15.9% 1.4% -1.7%
Homeland security, law enforcement, firefighting,
and related protective
services
-14.7% -4.1% -3.8%
Engineering technologies and engineering-related
fields
-14.5% -2.8% -3.5%
English language and
literature/letters
-14.3% -4.8% -2.3%
Visual and performing
arts
-14.2% 0.7% 1.4%
Multi/interdisciplinary
studies
-12.6% -3.2% -4.5%
Note: This list does not include a 37% year-over-year decrease in
programs identified as "Basic Skills and Developmental/Remedial
Education." It also excludes several program categories enrolling fewer
than 5,000 students.
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