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Higher Ed Dive
Declines in high school graduates may not be as bad as expected: report
By Natalie Schwartz
Published Dec. 15, 2020
Dive Brief:
Declines in high school graduates over the next decade may not be as
bad as initially projected because of improving graduation rates,
according to a new report from the Western Interstate Commission for
Higher Education.
The number of high school graduates is projected to peak in 2025 before
declining modestly through the next decade, the researchers found. The
declines are largely due to falling birth rates during the Great
Recession.
The projections are based on data from 2019 and earlier, so it's unclear how the pandemic will impact these trends.
Dive Insight:
WICHE projects 10% more high school graduates in 2025 than it did in
its previous forecast, made four years ago. Rising graduation rates
among public high school students of color — defined as graduates not
categorized as White — are partly driving this trend, the researchers
wrote.
"Future declines could be further mitigated if the nation continues to
improve graduation rates, particularly among underserved students,"
WICHE President Demarée Michelau said in a press release. However, the
coronavirus pandemic could "erode the progress" high schools have made,
Michelau added.
The projections assume that trends over the past five years will
continue in the future, but they don't yet account for the pandemic's
impact on the K-12 system.
Some preliminary research indicates there could be higher numbers of
graduates in 2020, likely because of worsening job opportunities. Yet
another report suggests the share of high school graduates who
matriculated into college fell sharply this fall from last year, and
other research suggests that pandemic-related cuts to education could
hamper student achievement.
States will see different trends play out over the coming years.
Illinois and West Virginia are expected to see the largest declines of
high school graduates between 2019 and 2037, each dropping 24%. North
Dakota, meanwhile, is expected to see a 34% increase.
Regions will also be impacted differently. All nine Northeastern states
will see declines, ranging from 6% to 18%. Projections in Southern and
Western states are more variable, with around two-thirds expecting
declines through 2037.
To address these challenges, colleges will need to improve retention
and graduation rates. However, completion rate gains have slowed
recently, according to a report this month from the National Student
Clearinghouse Research Center.
Colleges should also focus on serving nontraditional students, the
report suggests. This summer, the University of Massachusetts partnered
with Brandman University to grow its online footprint in the state and
elsewhere to reach more adult students. And California built an online
community college to reach the state's adult learners.
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