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ESPN
What the Ivy League's canceling its seasons means for college basketball, other sports play
Nov 13, 2020
Multiple Contributors
In an unfortunate echo of March, the Ivy League on Thursday became the
first Division I league to cancel its men's and women's basketball
seasons, announcing that it would not play any winter sports in 2020-21
and would delay a decision on spring sports until at least the start of
March 2021.
Will the Ivy's decision prompt other leagues and schools to consider
canceling winter sports? What are the specific implications for college
basketball, most notably the multibillion-dollar revenue-generator that
is the NCAA tournament? What issues are schools and conferences
grappling with as they attempt to return to play amid the coronavirus
pandemic? ESPN's team of college reporters addressed the latest on
those fronts:
How much impact do you expect the Ivy League's decision to cancel the
2020-21 college basketball season to have on other Division I
conferences?
I don't think this will be the first domino like it was back in March
for conference tournaments. The Ivy League already was a step ahead of
most conferences for this season, as it had already canceled
nonconference games. Also, because the Ivy doesn't generally offer
special exceptions to student-athletes, it was unlikely to bring
student-athletes back on campus when the general population is learning
remotely. Four of the eight schools in the league were operating on a
remote basis in the fall, so those students likely weren't going to
return until at least the spring semester -- and that's if the spring
doesn't go remote as well.
Could another league follow suit? Perhaps. The most likely candidate
would be the Patriot League, which has already canceled nonconference
games and is generally in lockstep with the Ivy League on major
decisions. But I don't see men's and women's basketball shutting down
wholesale, Power 5 or non-Power 5, the way it did in March. -- Jeff
Borzello
I'm not convinced there will be a mass exodus at this point, but men's
and women's college basketball programs are wrestling with critical
questions about the upcoming season. Can they afford to follow the
protocols with testing and contact tracing? Officials at Saint Mary's
of the WCC said they expect to spend $400,000 this year on testing for
athletes. For most non-Power 5 leagues, the main source of pre-NCAA
tournament revenue depends on the ability to hold games. Without fans
or with limited crowds, those numbers are compromised. If schools can't
arrange buy games, and especially if the Power 5 schools shift toward
limited nonconference schedules, how much will college basketball cost
those schools this season?
Why mid- and low-major college basketball programs are in big trouble without buy games
The Ivy League is respected throughout college basketball and its
universities have the financial pipelines to withstand an abnormal
season. If they've decided the risks aren't worth it, other non-Power 5
leagues could follow. Right now, college basketball's haves are
positioned with resources the rest of the landscape lacks. I think
every league in the have-nots group is thinking twice about moving
forward now that the Ivy League has made its announcement. -- Myron
Medcalf
The Ivy League's decision also directly impacts the ECAC Hockey
conference for both men and women. Six Ivy League schools -- Brown,
Cornell, Dartmouth, Harvard, Princeton and Yale -- each field men's and
women's hockey programs that play in the ECAC. Of the remaining six
teams -- Clarkson, Colgate, Quinnipiac, Rensselaer, St. Lawrence and
Union -- Rensselaer and Union have often taken cues from the Ivy
schools, but there has not been an indication yet if that will be the
case. ECAC Hockey is the only conference in men's hockey that has not
announced any portion of its schedule for the 2020-21 season as it
awaited the Ivy League's decision. It would be very difficult for the
conference to proceed with four teams (if Rensselaer and Union don't
play). -- Chris Peters
How worried are coaches, publicly or privately, about the ability to carry off winter seasons in college sports?
Coaches throughout men's basketball are making the public declarations
we've come to expect in these scenarios. And the truth is they're all
working hard to create environments that hopefully will allow their
athletes to compete this season. But there seems to be waning support
and confidence around a traditional nonconference season for some,
while others believe college basketball will just figure it out.
"I definitely think there will be a nonconference season," said one
high-profile coach, while one non-Power 5 coach told ESPN he believes
it's "impossible" for his league to play this season. The coaches with
the most confidence about the upcoming season play in leagues where
schools can create their own versions of a bubble with practice
facilities, private dorms on campus, short walks between buildings and
charter flights. The men's basketball practice facility at the
University of Kentucky is next to the dorm for Kentucky basketball,
where a chef prepares meals for players. But that's not the situation
for everyone. Then again, the possible payout from the NCAA tournament
is also the biggest motivator for those schools to keep going. -- Myron
Medcalf
There's a very high level of concern and it's only growing as cases
continue to increase around the country. There's very little confidence
a full season of 27 or 28 games is going to be played. In talking to
coaches around the country, I would place the average over/under around
16-18 games. Much of that simply has to do with the 14-day quarantine
guidelines put in place and the lack of separation between different
position groups. In football, you can have several positive tests and
still play a game, or if there's a 14-day quarantine put in place for
the entire team, you might miss only two games. Basketball is a
completely different story. There are only 13 players on a team and
they all practice together. There's no separating offense and defense
or guards and forwards for an entire practice. And 14 days means at
least four games. If a team has two cases of COVID-19 over the course
of an entire season, that's at least eight games gone. -- Jeff Borzello
On Wednesday, UConn coach Geno Auriemma expressed confidence that the
women's basketball season will start on time in two weeks. But he also
referenced college football, which is going through a spate of
coronavirus-related cancellations, to suggest his current confidence
means little. "Let's put it this way: I'm as confident as college
football was when they started their season," Auriemma said. "Why?
Because everything is OK right now. Will everything be OK two months
from now? I don't know. But I'm confident that we're going to be able
to do what we need to do, and so far we've done everything that we've
been asked to do.
"We're going to do what we need to do to make it work. Until when?
Until we realize that, you know what, it's not in our best interests --
the players' best interests specifically -- to move on." -- Graham Hays
Baylor women's basketball coach Kim Mulkey, whose Lady Bears won the
2019 NCAA title, said her players "understand that there are no
guarantees for tomorrow." She tells them to focus on what they can
control.
"We're focused on basketball, but they're human. You just have a, I
don't know if 'nervousness' is the word to use, but it's just the
unknown," she said.
"[COVID-19] is here to stay, and we can do all the things we're
supposed to do, and as you're seeing across the country, it's going to
happen. What I'm gathering is administrators across the country, and
even the NCAA, they just want you to, by golly, get those games in.
It's not about wins and losses. Well, how do you tell Kim Mulkey it's
not about wins and losses? But I understand the situation we're in with
COVID, and I'm going to have to figure out how to survive and live and
help our team get better, regardless of the score of ballgames." --
Mechelle Voepel
The men's college hockey season is scheduled to begin Saturday with
Wisconsin traveling to Notre Dame to open the Big Ten season -- Notre
Dame is a hockey-only member of the conference. Other conferences are
due to begin by Nov. 20. The Big Ten has scheduled only its first half
of what will be a shortened season, while most other conferences have
scheduled out their entire shortened seasons. NCAA coaches have been
outwardly positive about the prospects of pulling off the season,
though more on the side of cautiously optimistic. -- Chris Peters
What are the most common COVID-19 and quarantine guidelines schools and leagues are working around?
That's the challenge. Guidelines are different. What's clear is there
seems to be an acknowledgement of NCAA guidelines. Multiple college
basketball programs have already paused team activities for 14 days
following a positive test within their programs, which is what the NCAA
recommends. But that's not the tricky part.
There are more than 350 teams and unique requirements depending on the
state and sometimes, the county. Want to play in Hawaii? Need proof of
a negative test 72 hours before entering the island. In California,
some schools have only recently been given the green light to practice.
At UC Irvine, players have spent a chunk of the preseason practicing
with just six people in the gym at a time and a single hoop for each
athlete. Ohio State pulled out of the Crossover Classic in South
Dakota, which currently has the nation's highest positivity rates (more
than 50%), due to state guidelines of a 14-day quarantine for people
returning from high-positivity states. Officials in Michigan have
labeled basketball as a "high risk" sport. New Mexico State has opted
to move its entire team this season because of state guidelines against
competition.
The American Athletic Conference is testing three days per week, per
NCAA guidelines, but AAC member Temple is located in Philadelphia and
is subject to city rules that require "participants to have been tested
seven consecutive days prior to competition," per AAC officials. When
you combine Division I schools in 49 states and a series of state,
county and even city regulations, it's easy to see how much of a mess
might be ahead for the sport. -- Myron Medcalf
What are schools most worried about, in respect to COVID-19 and quarantine guidelines?
There certainly has been a lot of buzz about the 14-day quarantine
guidelines from the NCAA. Some of the game's top coaches have been
fighting behind the scenes to adjust those guidelines for the season. I
think there is a collective concern that the 14-day quarantines could
create lengthy pauses for programs and create substantial interruptions
in the season. One coach said he favors the NFL rule, which allows
asymptomatic players to return to competition five days after testing
positive, if they test negative with back-to-back PCR tests at least 24
hours apart. -- Myron Medcalf
Coaches are worried most about the start of the season. There are a
number of programs that have shut down recently due to a positive
COVID-19 test and now their season-opening games are up in the air. The
coach of one program who shut down earlier this month told me he had no
idea how his team could be physically prepared to play games in less
than two weeks -- especially if they had to be sidelined from workouts
and practice for another week. That's the general vibe around college
basketball. Shutting down for 14 days is one thing -- but it's not just
14 days until you can play a game. No team is going to suit up for a
game after not doing a single thing for two weeks. And it's that type
of scenario that has coaches concerned about the season. -- Jeff
Borzello
Women's basketball coaches agree that a 14-day quarantine is
problematic, especially as it pertains to the student-athletes
maintaining fitness and mental health.
"We went from being able to contact trace to now an entire program
being shut down," Butler women's basketball coach Kurt Godlevske said.
"The impact of that on our student-athletes' mental health could be
very challenging."
Whether it's the NCAA or the Big East, Marquette women's basketball
coach Megan Duffy hopes a 10-day period is considered instead.
"I think there are some ways when you have a whole program of healthy
individuals sitting at home in their dorm rooms or their apartments, I
think there has to be a way that we can look into it a little bit
differently than we're doing right now."
Added Creighton women's basketball coach Jim Flanery: "I would like to
see the quarantine rules at least given a hard look. I feel like 14
days, and then to get them into condition, that's almost three weeks. I
think there's the potential to maybe have them tested after five and
six and seven days and potentially not have the length of quarantine
that's recommended." -- Graham Hays
How seriously are conferences considering bubble-type scenarios in order to knock out multiple league games in a single event?
Not as seriously as they should be, in my opinion. In fairness, there
have been a few leagues exploring the option. Big East commissioner Val
Ackerman said on a conference call last month that a bubble was a
"possibility" and they had alternative plans for the second half of the
conference season. The Mountain West and West Coast Conference have had
legitimate discussions about moving to a bubble format, although it
appears they will attempt a normal season for now. But that's about it.
There's a school of thought, shared by most decision-makers, that you
can't bubble college athletes -- amateurs -- for extended periods of
time. The money aspect is an entirely different conversation, and there
are certainly conferences that can't afford to bubble for an entire
season -- but the bigger conferences should be able to figure out
something if they really wanted. -- Jeff Borzello
I think any league that can't create a bubblelike environment for
league games should probably prepare for a chaotic season. More than
15% of Division I football's scheduled games have been postponed or
canceled because of COVID-19. And that's with one game per week and
fewer than 100 schools competing right now. College basketball has
hundreds of teams spread across the country that will try to play
multiple games each week. Seems like the only way to pull this off is
to create a model where one location is the host for multiple games in
most leagues, especially those without private travel to and from
games. But that's costly, and it also creates academic challenges for
programs that might have to leave campus for lengthy stretches. --
Myron Medcalf
Marquette women's basketball coach Megan Duffy initially wasn't a fan
of playing in a bubble, but she is warming up to the necessity of it.
"A few months ago ... the idea of putting our student-athletes in a
confined space for a month or five weeks just seems daunting. I don't
think that fits what we're all trying to do," she said. "But as we move
forward into figuring out if we can move forward with our seasons, for
me personally I wouldn't be against some sort of a bubble. I think it
would have to be a situation where it's a shorter time and you can get
a few games in."
Creighton's Jim Flanery also sees the positives of a bubble environment, but again favors a shorter time period.
"I think that's a great opportunity to get games in, whether it's a
two-week bubble or a three-week -- I don't want to do a month or a
five-week bubble," he said. "But I think if we could do it long enough
that it wasn't going to compromise our mental health, but also could
assure that we can get four, five, six games in, I think that would be
huge. Because I do think we're going to have disruptions." -- Graham
Hays
Only one of college hockey's conferences -- the National Collegiate
Hockey Conference -- has committed to a bubble for the first half of
its season. They're calling it a "pod" and it will take place from Dec.
1 to Dec. 20 in Omaha, Nebraska. The conference, which is men's hockey
only, expects its eight teams to play 10 games apiece for 40 total
contests inside the pod. The conference says a number of its schools
will already have wrapped up fall semesters and the conference will
provide academic assistance for the schools that will still have
classes ongoing as the pod opens. The rest of the conferences plan to
host games at campus sites. -- Chris Peters
How many cancellations/postponements should fans expect in college basketball this season?
Based on what we've witnessed so far, cancellations and postponements
will probably become common in college basketball, a sport that will
commence as the United States endures record rates of positivity. In
football, six or seven guys can be quarantined and the game continues.
That won't happen in basketball. The other issue is location. Playing
indoors presents a challenge that no basketball league outside a bubble
has encountered. College basketball will be the first. I expect
officials to be quite cautious about moving forward with games after
positive tests. -- Myron Medcalf
Should we expect schools to schedule games on the fly all season, as cancellations necessitate?
Definitely. College football has created a number of restrictions that
blocked teams from coming up with games on the fly, but I think college
basketball will demand more flexibility. This weekend, Ohio State and
Alabama, two powerhouses, are looking for a game but won't play each
other due to league rules. In college basketball, I believe Kentucky
would play Villanova in a similar situation if both had open dates due
to COVID-19. I think the goal, regardless of conference, will be to
play as many games as possible. The selection committee might create a
COVID-19 stipulation and we also could have an expanded field. Can't
worry about March. Just play games and see what happens. I think that's
the attitude. -- Myron Medcalf
What's the latest with fans in the stands in college basketball and hockey?
It varies. But it doesn't seem as if any team will play in front of a
large crowd. Louisville and Kentucky have 15% capacity limits due to
state rules. Duke just announced it will not have fans at Cameron
Indoor Stadium. North Carolina coach Roy Williams said he doesn't
expect to see any fans in the stands this year and perhaps next season
as well. Fans aren't the priority for schools that haven't even been
cleared for competition. It's all delicate. We'll see a lot of empty
venues this year. Dr. Jaimie Meyer, an infectious disease specialist at
Yale, said she doesn't see a scenario where it will be safe to have
fans in arenas this season. -- Myron Medcalf
South Carolina women's basketball, which has led the nation in
attendance each of the past six seasons, will be allowed to have about
3,500 fans at home games to begin this season. That's about 20% of
capacity at Colonial Life Arena. Tickets will be available only via
mobile apps and will be sold in groups of two, four and six seats, with
each group separated by approximately 6 feet. Masks will be required
for all fans and staff in the arena, and fans will not be allowed to
sit in the first five rows behind the court.
Ranked second in attendance a season ago, Oregon will start the season
without fans at Matthew Knight Arena. The Pac-12 announced in September
that its schools would not be permitted to have fans in attendance at
home games through the end of the calendar year.
Baylor will allow 25% of capacity to start the season at the Ferrell
Center, which equates to approximately 2,600 fans at the on-campus
arena. -- Graham Hays
Each conference in hockey has its own guidelines. The NCHC pod will not
have spectators, but if its member teams are able to play the second
half of their schedule, each institution could issue its own policy on
attendance. Big Ten schools are largely operating with limited capacity
with preference given to families of the participants. Hockey East has
left the determination on fan attendance up to its member institutions
based on state and local health officials' guidance. Many schools have
told NHL teams that there will be a limited number of spots available
for scouts at their games as well. -- Chris Peters
Do you expect the NCAA to give serious consideration to moving NCAA tournament dates?
I'd say some consideration, but not sure how serious it will be. "March
Madness" is a brand the NCAA will fight to sustain. At the same time,
when asked multiple times in recent months about moving the event, Dan
Gavitt, NCAA vice president of basketball operations, said the
"preference" is to host the event in March and April. A source recently
told ESPN, however, that the NCAA might have more flexibility with its
TV partners on the dates of the tournament than first believed. When
asked about that, NCAA spokesperson David Worlock told ESPN, "Nothing
has changed with regards to the committee's ongoing study of various
contingency plans." -- Myron Medcalf
Do you expect the NCAA to move any of the tournament sites, including the Final Fours in Indianapolis and San Antonio?
I don't think any site can count on hosting the tournament as
scheduled. The bottom line is that the NCAA has to host a tournament
for financial reasons. It lost $375 million with last year's
cancellation. It can't afford another, which means the NCAA is going to
host a tournament even if it has to put every team in the same bubble
and pay for individual hotel rooms and daily testing. More than
anything, I think the sites for the tournament will depend on the
spread of the virus. -- Myron Medcalf
Do you expect the NCAA to seriously consider having 'replacement teams'
at the ready for its tournaments, if positive tests prevent selected
teams from playing?
I'm not sure how the NCAA tournaments move forward without replacement
teams. A positive test could eliminate multiple teams from the event,
depending on contact tracing. You'd think it would need to have a team
or two ready to step in and compete if necessary. When Gavitt was asked
about it, he told ESPN that replacement teams were on the table. And
The Basketball Tournament proceeded and only worked because the event
had four replacement teams, all of which were used and had gone through
the same protocols as everyone else. It also doesn't seem too
complicated to keep the highest losing seeds at the event after each
round, just in case. Does it sound unusual? Of course it does. But so
does playing a full season with more than 300 teams in a
pandemic. -- Myron Medcalf
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