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Education Dive
College enrollment declines deepen
Hallie Busta
Oct. 15, 2020
Dive Brief:
Undergraduate enrollment is running further behind last year's levels
than earlier data indicated, according to an update from the National
Student Clearinghouse Research Center.
The center pegged undergraduate enrollment down 4% year-over-year as of
Sept. 24, compared to a 2.5% lag as of Sept. 10. The latest report has
data from 54% of the roughly 3,600 schools the center covers, compared
to 22% in the earlier sample.
The report found a considerable drop-off in the number of first-time
beginning students from a year ago, particularly at community colleges.
Dive Insight:
The decreases among first-time students is surprising and, in some
cases, worrisome, Doug Shapiro, the center's executive director, told
reporters on a call Wednesday.
Across the sector, enrollment of these students was down 16% from a
year ago. But that was steeper at community colleges, which recorded
nearly 23% fewer first-time students.
"Those students are probably less likely to be able to come back, say,
six months or even a year from now" than students who would be
attending some four-year schools, Shapiro said. "I think there's a real
risk that this entire generation of students will take many, many years
to recover from the declines."
The drop in first-year students at community colleges contributed to
deepening losses across that sector, which also led institution types
in enrollment declines in the earlier data. Public four-year colleges
also reported bigger undergraduate losses than before, while the
year-over-year decreases at private nonprofit four-years shrunk from
the Sept. 10 report. Private for-profit colleges, meanwhile, was the
only sector to gain students.
Enrollment decreases at four-year colleges were roughly on-par with pre-pandemic enrollment trends, Shapiro noted.
Meanwhile, all undergraduate student demographics whose enrollment
decreased from a year ago in the first report showed continued
decreases in the update.
Historically Black colleges' fall undergraduate enrollment largely
tracked the national trends, with bigger decreases at private nonprofit
schools and smaller ones at community colleges.
Colleges also reported sharper declines in international student enrollment, down 13.7% as of Sept. 24.
Graduate enrollment, which was up nearly 4% in the earlier data, is now
only ahead by 2.7%. Those gains are weighted toward for-profit,
four-year colleges.
The decreases weren't felt equally nationwide. Graduate and
undergraduate enrollment was up in five states, including Utah, Vermont
and West Virginia — where it was down year-over-year in 2019.
Enrollment increases, particularly at community colleges, are typically
tied to recessions. But earlier Clearinghouse data show significant
gains took a few years to materialize amid the last recession.
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